We're comparing the SoR composite RB rankings to Average Draft Position data from three sites (Y!, ESPN, FFC). We're looking for running backs who are being overvalued or undervalued in fantasy football leagues and mock drafts. One of our sixteen backs bounces defenders off him like he's an 8-bit reincarnate of 1991's most feared. Sixteen backs; some are overrated, some are underrated and some are both. Enjoy.
Rank SoR composite RB rankings
ADP average ADP from the three sites
FFC FantasyFootballCalculator (mock draft results from August 24th)
Darren McFadden is slightly underrated even though he is widely considered a Top 10 RB. After traveling more than 1,600 yards (with 10 TD) in 13 games last year DMC is ready to add to his breakout season. He totaled over 100 yards from scrimmage in nine of thirteen games. McFadden was consistently awesome. I loved him, I hated him and now I love him all over again. I have DMC ranked fifth in my personal rankings.
Fred Jackson is just one of those quiet, consistent players that continues to fly under the radar. Few people know of the Bills that roam Buffalo. They're a peaceful bunch that were pushed into a corner of New York, almost forced into Canada. Fred Jackson is a feature back who can play third down and doesn't have anyone poaching goal line carries. It sounds strange, but these guys are hard to find. C.J. Spiller is lurking in the shadows, but that's where he'll spend his entire NFL career. He's nocturnal, not active in the daylight. Fred Jackson's shadow is C.J. Spiller's ecosystem. Fred is a solid bet for another 200 plus carries, 1,100 total yards and 7 TD. He makes for a great flex player.
Brandon Jacobs is an in shape 264 lb running back. You should draft him on that alone. He is powerful and he is still pretty quick for a big guy. In the world of Tecmo Super Bowl he would be Christian Okoye (youtubed above). Jacobs looks great this preseason and he should be in line for another 150 carries with the possibility of getting closer to 200. Coach Coughlin says he was under worked last year (154 touches) and Jacobs expressed his desire for 200 carries. Anything is possible, especially when Bradshaw has an untrustworthy foot. I like the big brute for 800 yards and 8 TD with the upside of 1,150 yards and 10 or more TD.
Michael Bush is a poor man's Brandon Jacobs. Maybe that's a wee harsh, but oh well. Bush isn't as big as Jacobs, but at 245 lbs he's still massive. Bush is a complement to Darren McFadden in the Raiders run game, but his size will help him steal goal line carries. He enters the 2011 season in full health and further removed from leg surgery. He's a good bet for 800 plus total yards and 6 to 8 TD. Bush is ranked 36th in my personal RB rankings, but he goes much later in drafts because half the people that see him play are stabbed to death in the Raiders parking lot.
Willis McGahee can be found circling the Denver skies, flying overhead waiting for the Broncos reach the red zone. There was a time when Jerome Bettis would rush for negative two yards, but score three touchdowns. It takes only one carry to score six points. Denver's confirmed goal line back, Willis McGahee, wasn't shown much love in our composite rankings, but I have him going as high as my 36th RB. I think he's being overlooked even though the rankings say he's overrated.
Delone Carter cannot be found in most ADP reports, but he has a realistic chance of being the goal line back in a high powered offense. The fourth round pick is stout (5'9, 225 lbs) and he specializes in downhill running. He's looked good in camp and we all know Joseph Addai is not built to last. If Addai goes down Delone Carter would make for a solid RB2. Right now he's merely a speculative goal line vulture, but this could be the flier pick that people brag about during the 2012 draft season.
Kendall Hunter and Anthony Dixon cannot be found in our Top 50 RB or the ADP reports. That's because neither are starters nor are they vultures. Both are backups to the Evil Knievil of the NFL, Frank Gore. Frank has broken every bone in his body during his NFL career, it's true. Which back will be the understudy when Gore goes down is anyone's guess. I like 'em both, what can I say? Dixon is the bruiser (goal line duties) and Hunter is the little guy who could. If I had to choose one it would be Hunter.
Roy Helu is just one of the handful of Redskin lottery ticket running backs. First it was Ryan Torain, now it's Tim Hightower and next it could be Roy Helu. The bad reputation Mike Shanahan has earned will continue to manifest itself as fantasy football managers are tormented by the speculation of fantasy prognosticators. Will it be the former Bronco back who Shanny adorned? Will it be the fumbling Hightower? Will it be the fourth round draft pick? I don't know. But what I do know is Roy Helu costs only one dollar and the margin for profit is substantial. Sign me up.
Shonn Greene has to be included in this because of our composite ranking (13) and his ADP (19). He looks to be underrated, but ESPN dragged down his average draft position and quite frankly I'm not a big believer in Greene. Shonn was unimpressive last season despite running behind the best run blocking unit in the league. I have him ranked 16th and gave consideration to moving LeGarrette Blount ahead of him.
Peyton Hillis looks to be overrated according to our rankings (18) and his ADP (13), but I'm with the masses on Hillis. I have Peyton ranked 11th among RB. My affection for Hillis is on full display in the latest Beef the Series entry. I do not want to jinx him so I will go no further.
Daniel Thomas looks to be underrated according to our rankings (20) and his ADP (27), but again I'm with the masses. Because of the team's desire to prove their trade for Reggie Bush was stupid cool and Thomas' lack of "umpf" from a so-called big man, I have him ranked 29th among my RB. If Lex Hilliard were to poach goal line carries... well...
Tim Hightower is all the rage in Washington. Ryan Torain is out with his annual broken something so Hightower volunteered his services. That's how easy it is to be a featured back in Mike Shanahan's offense. The SoR composite rankings says he's overrated (45 rank vs 35 adp), but I have him ranked 31st among all RB. I'm campaigning for Hightower in Washington. I recognize the risk, but he's a starter and deserves to be drafted as such. If he has overcome his fumbling woes of the past he could end up being a Fred Jackson-type back.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis is still being drafted as a RB2 at Yahoo! and ESPN even though the Patriots drafted Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley. I believe BJGE can meet and pay off the price tag, but that's if the two draft picks get few if no carries. That's the (nearly unattainable) ceiling and we try to avoid ceiling price tags. It's nearly a lock that he doesn't live up to last season's standards, don't pay for it.
Knowshon Moreno is being drafted as a Top 20 RB, but I'm not buying it. Willis McGahee will be stealing the most important carries and Willis has shown he can fit into John Fox's ground scheme. Denver doesn't have a good run blocking unit, but they will be looking to move the ball via the ground. Moreno's upside, however, will be limited if McGahee (and Tim Tebow) are stealing touchdowns. Knowshon comes in at number 26 in my personal RB rankings because of the lack of upside and potential for downside.
LaDainian Tomlinson looked great in the early weeks of the 2010 season and then rolled into Mile High seated in a wheel chair. It's hard to tackle a guy in a wheel chair, but they have no break away speed. As a result LDT averaged 3.3 yards per carry from week six going forward. The reigns have been handed over to Shonn Greene. LDT is merely a third down back with a popular name. Sometimes it's hard to let go of our fantasy heroes of yesteryear, but like Robert De Niro said in the movie Heat, "don't let yourself get attached to any player that you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you feel the heat of a PCL injury around the corner".
Maurice Jones-Drew and Frank Gore. I think you know where I'm going with these two. MJD and Gore provide great production when healthy, but the question is whether or not they are abled-bodied and will they remain vigorous as the season wears on? MJD has a troublesome knee and Frank Gore has a troublesome everything. I play in head-to-head leagues and I can't trust either back to play for my team come week 14. I will avoid these two with the passion of Mel Gibson.
Tom: Best is in a better offense and doesn't have a 2nd Rd pick looking to steal touches (goal line). There are similarities though. As for Beanie, he'll receive a boost in he ranks when we update. I have him at No.20 now. We'll update soon.
Jeagle: What am I going to do at the turn? Well, I don't play snake drafts so we'll never find out. You don't have to worry about such matters in auction formats. You get who you want, not who you're forced to pick. I would pass on MJD/Gore and go with either S-Jax and Forte or S-Jax and a WR (Megatron vs Fitz). If there was a FLEX spot, I'd probably go with the two RB and hope to land a good third. I'm RB crazy. I too would be nervous if Best and Ingram were my two RB.
So if your avoiding MJD and gore what are you doing at the turn of a 14 team league with 2WR 2RB and a W/R/T slot. Most times in a yahoo draft it ends up falling such that the top players are:WR: Fitzgerald, Megatron, White, Nicks
RB: MJD, Gore, Forte, S-Jax
Ive been targeting MJD and a top WR. If i go with the top two WR left i usually end up getting a best, ingram combo in the following rounds which i would feel awfully nervous about.
I'm liking Beanie a bit more than the rankings. ARZ's ground game draws tears, but with them being able to stretch the ball through the air more this year (most likely), a few extra holes might open up. And with RW out, Beanie has a shot to be in the same category as Blount/Greene and around 20th or so in ranks.
Also, if Bush is at 35, I'm kind of surprised to see Best inside the top 20, given similar expected usage and line-play.