Slick Picks: Week Six

Your gambling picks this week could use a coat of Paint'
Photo Credit: Jeffrey Beall

Last week, I told you that it was important to never make the “obvious bet.” This mantra of mine proved to be accurate in a few cases, especially in the Pittsburgh-Tennessee game, where the Titans were given as much as seven points in some locations. Naturally, they lost the game and didn’t even come close to covering. Like I said, the bookie usually knows what’s up, so don’t fall for his schemes.

Having said that, not all games are “trap” games. Case in point: the Jacksonville-Cincinatti game. The Jaguars were given the favorite nod, which was odd considering they had only won one game (a close one too) and were playing the Bengals who had just come off an impressive victory over Buffalo. So without hesitation, I told you to take Jacksonville. I should have known better. Yes the line was “odd,” but not in the way I previously mentioned. The Jags were the 2.5 point favorite, true, but being a 2.5 home favorite is not an indication of the bookie knowing they would win. In fact, it might actually show hesitation. When a team is at home, they are usually given an automatic three point advantage. So, in essence, Jacksonville was the 0.5 underdogs, but due to the home field advantage got the favorite nod. That alone should have warranted some suspicion. When faced with similar situations, always take the points. Not all games are necessarily “traps.”

With that said, here are my 5 slick picks of the week. We went 3-2 last week to go 5-4 on the season. As always, I throw in a Survivor pick for good measure. More after the jump:

Colts +7 over the Bengals
Cincinnati is clearly the better team on paper. They have the better defense, arguably the better offense, and have actually won games this season. The Colts have been a mess all year and they’re winless. Having said that, Curtis Painter is emerging as a respectable QB, and he will not let this game get away from him easily. I still say the Bengals win, but not by a touchdown. Back the Colts who make this game interesting until the end.

Jaguars +13 over the Steelers
The Steelers are coming off a “trap” game win over the TItans. They clearly showed that despite their injury troubles, they are still a force to be reckoned with in the AFC. Therefore, they’ve been given the enormous point advantage against a paltry Jaguars team. The problem with this is that the bookie is likely trying to sell high on a team coming off an enormous victory. That doesn’t sit well with me. Back the Jaguars who keep this game close and lose by less than a TD.

Packers -15 over the Rams
The spread may look scary, but is it really? The Packers are far and above the best team in the NFL. They have plenty of options to go to, and have arguably the best QB in the league running the show. The Rams, in contrast, are pitiful and have zero chemistry on offense. They’re also coming off a bye week, suggesting they may be a tad rusty coming into this encounter. Back the Packers who run away with this one early.

Panthers +4 over the Falcons
Atlanta keeps on getting mad respect from NFL analysts and clearly, bookies. The truth of the matter is, however, that they simply aren’t who we thought they were. They are much worse. Matt Ryan might be one of the most overrated QBs in the league, evident in his 6.64 yards per attempt average (good for 24th in the league). On the other hand, Cam Newton continues to impress, and he knows how to gain yards. He currently holds a 8.3 yards per attempt average. Panthers will not give this game up easily, especially against a division rival. They win this one outright and expose the mediocrity of the Falcons.

Raiders -7 over the Browns
Oakland is a team on a mission, a mission to avenge the death of their owner AL Davis (may he RIP). They showed their ability last week playing hard against the Texans, who despite not having Andre Johnson are no slouch of a team. The Browns are coming off a bye, and they will not have an answer for the heart these Raiders will bring. Back the Black and Silver who win in a blowout.

Surviving Week Six
A few games jump out at me this week. The Ravens are facing an injury riddled Texans and should win easily. I just can’t trust this game though. I mean, the Ravens lost to the Titans. Another option is New England against Dallas. The Pats should win, but is it really wise to bet against a completely healthy Dallas team in desperate need of a win? The last game that jumps out is Oakland vs. Cleveland. Ultimately, the Raiders are the advisable play this week.

Until next week, this has been your captain speaking.