.jpg&w=244&h=193&zc=1 "Star's Shares: 5/14/13")
NFL Real Talk: Week Eight
No Owen Heart
Photo Credit: Jeffrey Beall
Have an outside shot at the playoffs but can’t afford to lose too many games? Welcome to Trade Your Most Valuable Guys-ville, population: you.
A lot of people are leery of making trades, not wanting to become the “loser” of the trade. Well, if you are 3-4 or 2-5, you don’t have the luxury of sticking your nose up in the air. Sure some of you are below .500 due to some poor luck (bye weeks, facing the highest scoring teams, etc.). However, most of you aren’t that unlucky. The majority is simply yielding a mediocre team featuring one or two great players and a motley cast of supporting actors. For those sorry souls, a shakeup is needed. How do you create the shakeup? Not by offering your WR4 or RB depth, but by dangling your prized roster pieces. While it seems hard to trade the couple of people actually keeping your team above water, the right trades (aim for some good buy-low targets like Brandon Lloyd) are the only thing that can plug the holes on your sinking ship. Failure to make any big moves will still result in holes being plugged. Problem is, those holes will be in the middle of your arse and your opponents will be the ones doing the plugging.
More after the jump:
-Props deserve to be thrown Jeremy Kerley’s way, even if accurate passes alwasy aren’t. He’s been lining up in the slot and on the outside, and the Patriots showed a lot of respect by throwing extra coverage around him. Kerley easily runs the cleanest routes of New York’s sorry sack of WRs, and Mark Sanchez clearly loves him. Not only is Kerley averaging over eight targets a game over the last three weeks, but Sanchez even went so far as to call Kerley a “special talent.” Granted, Sanchez may be dumber than Kelly Bundy and thus have a meaningless opinion, but at least Kerley’s QB is showing him love, which means plenty more targets should come his way going forward.
-The name La’Rod Stephens-Howling generates a lot of skepticism, but I like him as a RB2/flex option the rest of the way. He’s an undersized back, but he has the most experience in Ken Whisenhunt’s offense and brings a nice dimension to the team as a plus-receiver out of the backfield. Even if he struggles on the ground some weeks (that is to be expected against SF on Monday night), he can still register 30-50 yards through the air a game. For PPR owners, that’s un-scoffable.
-With John Skelton looking his way often, Rob Housler is looking like a TE on the rise in fantasy. Housler saw seven targets on Sunday, and the athletic receiver has the tools to be an every-week starter. No need to add him just yet, but just keep an eye on his usage going forward.
Sell-ery (or, “These Guys Suck But Still Have Value, So Trade Them To Some Moron”)
1 - Vincent Jackson
There isn’t a better time to sell-high on V-Jax. Dude just racked up over 200 yards in Week Seven, but has totaled under 50 yards in half of his games. He’s a boom-or-bust player, but the busts are particularly prevalent with the soft-armed Josh Freeman throwing him passes. Jackson’s matchups also get harder towards the end of the season.
2 - Owen Daniels
He’s had a starter-worthy TE performance virtually every week this season, but it’s time to get out while the getting’s good. You can’t expect the TDs to keep rolling with Arian Foster likely to steal almost all of the goal-line opportunities. Also, Daniels hasn’t averaged over 50 yards per game on a season the last two years thanks to Houston taking a run-first approach. He’s currently averaging just under 60 yards a game, but that number figures to come down. Lastly, the TE position is still pretty deep. There will be a host of players with comparable rest-of-the-season production, but they will come way cheaper than Daniels. His value will never be higher and you’d be a fool not to shop him around.
3 - Darren McFadden
I don’t normally like selling players whose value is down from where it should be, and I usually loathe trading away a feature RB of such tremendous talent, but that doesn’t change the fact that you should try trading DMC to some other sucka. He’s obviously way better than his 3.1 YPC indicates, but the Raiders are having a hard time adjusting to the blocking methods instituted by first-year coach Dennis Allen. Oh yeah, DMC is also a major injury-risk who could go down at any moment. You shouldn’t just give him away, but offer up some package deals to get owners salivating at the thought of adding a premier RB.
Buy-sexuals (or, “You Should Want These Guys, But Only In A Platonic Way, Which Is Why They Are Called ‘BUY-sexuals’”)
1 - Tony Romo
Romo’s numbers look pedestrian and his fantasy owners are plenty frustrated thanks to the fact that he’s recorded just two multi-TD games and has a 8:9 TD-to-INT ratio over six contests. That makes him a perfect buy-low candidate. Romo is still showing terrific accuracy this season and still has the weapons needed to have a fantastic second-half of the fantasy season.
2 - Jerome Simpson
He’s cheap as hell, sitting on the free agent pile in many leagues. However he appears to be very healthy heading into Week Eight and should get plenty of open space to work with opposite Percy Harvin (don’t forget about the attention Kyle Rudolph draws as well). He should be a very useful WR3 going forward.
3 - Leonard Hankerson
With Pierre Garcon likely to be sidelined until Week 11 (at least), Hankerson will see a lot of playing time in the near future and might be a starter for the rest of the year if Garcon’s foot injury doesn’t heal up sufficiently. A starter in an offense led by Robert Griffin III has plenty of fantasy value.
Matchup Macking (or, “I’ll Tell You Which Border-line Options To Play With The Help Of Matchup Analysis, And Also I’m A Charming Lad ‘Round The Ladies”)
Last week’s points-per-recommendation (Yahoo! standard scoring with .5 PPR)
QB = 18.64 points
RB = 0 points (no recommendations)
WR = 7.5 points
TE = 12.8 points
This season’s points-per-recommendation
QB = 19.4 points (two recommendations)
RB = 2.2 points (one recommendation)
WR = 5.15 points (two recommendations)
TE = 11.25 points (two recommendations)
1 - Christian Ponder vs. TB
The Bucs are without top corner Aqib Talib, but even before he started serving his suspension, Tampa was getting lit up by opposing QBs. Signal-callers are completing passes at a 66-percent clip against them and averaging over 329 yards per game. At home and in the national spotlight Thursday night, expect Ponder to do work.
2 - Darrius Heyward-Bey at KC
The Chiefs have had a hard time keeping WRs at bay, and they’ve been fortunate to have played a lot of teams that prefer to run the ball down their throats. Alas, Oakland’s running game has been an issue, and the Raiders should take advantage of KC’s secondary and use their deep weapons to their advantage.
3 - Heath Miller vs. WAS
Miller has been running more routes this season and the Redskins are an ideal matchup for the Steelers TE. The Redskins have given up either a TD or over 70 yards to opposing TEs in all but one game this season.
Matchup Slacking (or, “I’ll Tell You Which Border-line Options To Sit With The Help Of Matchup Analysis, And Also I’m A Charming Lad ‘Round The Ladies”)
Last week’s points-per-recommendation (Yahoo! standard scoring with .5 PPR)
QB = 8.7 points
RB = 9.3 points
WR = 0 points (no recommendations)
TE = 0 points (no recommendations)
This season’s points-per-recommendation
QB = 8.7 points (one recommendation)
RB = 9.3 points (one recommendation)
WR = 0 points (no recommendations)
TE = 0 points (no recommendations)
1 - Stevan Ridley at STL
The trip to London makes things a bit unpredictable in terms of how certain players will handle it, but that isn’t the only reason Ridley is a shaky play. He’s been ceding more snaps to other RBs in New England over the past couple of weeks and hasn’t reached the 20-touch mark since Week Five. Ridley is also facing a Rams team that has allowed just one 100-yard runner all season.
2 - Brian Hartline at NYJ
The Jets defense is proving that even without their top corner, they can still shut down opposing offenses. While Hartline has had some big games this season, he struggles when facing more physical corners. New York’s Antonio Cromartie likes it rough (just like your mom), so expect Hartline to produce a doo-doo line yet again.
Dropping Deuces (or “These Guys Are Bad, So Bad That One Can Refer To Them As ‘Shitty’”)
1 - DeAngelo Williams
I mean, honestly, what the fuck are you doing keeping this guy around? He’s essentially the third string RB on his own team, and the Panthers don’t even run it that often. He was once a great fantasy back, but now he’s garbage. Make like a troubled teenager and get to cutting.
Oh and @Starbonell ... any thoughts on my question in the previous post on the site about which RB I should use this week?
Thanks in advance!
Before the games 3 weeks ago I traded McFadden and Antonio Brown in my keeper league. I got Calvin Johnson and Chris Johnson. Definitely LOVING that move!
