Photo Credit: Keith Allison
Last week we took it on the chin for the first time all season. But rest assured, no one wants to make that money back for you more than I do. I believe in full disclosure so I think it’s in your best interest to know that I play every game I release. I’m of the opinion that it’s not fair if I’m not going to war with the very people playing my picks, so I’m feeling last week’s losses just as much as you are. Trust me. That said, we’re still above .500 in the record department(6-5-1) and are still in the green in winnings (+184 dollars). If it weren’t for Robert Griffin III getting knocked out and Joe McKnight returning a kickoff 103 yards to the house last weekend, we in all likelihood go 3-1 in Week Five. Either way, you can’t change the past, you can only hope to affect the future. So let me put the salesman talk aside, cut the jokes which curry my editor’s favor, and pick you some winners like I did the first three weeks.
My picks after the jump:
The Pick: Dallas Cowboys +3.5 at BAL
Baltimore is 0-2 against the spread in their last two games. These games where Baltimore failed to cover came against the Chiefs and the Browns. I’ve got to believe that the Cowboys are better than both these teams and will be hungry after an embarrassing loss on Monday Night Football. The bye week was a time for the Cowboys to get healthy. Look for Joe Flacco to struggle against the Dallas secondary. The Cowboys may very well win this game outright and I believe they will. If not, the points should help you in what figures to be a close game.
The Prediction: Cowboys 24, Ravens 17
The Wager: $150
The Pick: San Francisco 49ers -6.5 vs. NYG
Every one of my New York Giants friends is cringing at the sight of this pick, because they know despite last week’s struggles, I’m still a sharp handicapper. Some may feel as though this is a homer pick as I am a San Francisco 49ers fan (remember, I said I believe in full disclosure). But rest assured, I’ve only picked the 49ers once this season and they covered for us. Here’s what you have to understand about the 49ers. Before the Jets game they spent the week in Youngstown, Ohio. They did the same thing last year before a stretch of East Coast games. The week they spent in Youngstown last year served to unify the team and got them believing in Harbaugh’s philosophy. Well, it looks like the Niners are buying into this philosophy yet again, which is a dangerous thing for the G-men. The Giants have to fly five hours cross country to play a team that’s been salivating to redeem themselves for nine months now. Look for the Niners to dominate the line of scrimmage and to out-physical the Giants. And yes, I know New York plays tremendously when they are underdogs, but they won’t in this matchup. Too much is at stake for the Niners.
The Prediction: 49ers 30, Giants 20
The Wager: $150
The Pick: Green Bay Packers +3.5 vs. HOU
So why take the Green Bay Packers? One, it’s a must win game. Two, the Pack are reeling from blowing a large lead against the Indianapolis Colts. Three, the Houston Texans are starting to get complacent.
The Prediction: Packers 28, Texans 24
The Wager: $150
I think I've noticed a correlation between short explations included in your picks, and them being winners. As seen above, a long explanation was needed to explain the 9er's covering -6.5 vs the gmen, and we know what happened. On the other hand you kept it generally simple on the boys, and even more so with the pack. At the end of the day to each his own and I always look forward to class at GSU. I would add that everyone has a different sized bank roll, so the $#'s don't mean to much. Shoulda put a g on it. Thanks.
Oh and College wolf Dallas beat the Giants week one in New York when no team coming off a Super Bowl win had ever lost in primetime at home... so your theory that Dallas struggles against good teams is out the window. They're just inconsistent.
College Wolf... Baltimore only beat the Browns by six.... the game was at home. The Niners beat the Giants in the regular season last year... at home. You must consider the fact that this Niners team is not the same. I repeat not the same. More weapons now. Atlanta is not a bad pick, but you must remember that Oakland is coming off a bye and Atlanta is not going to win every game. I like the Miami pick. And the Jets, Colts game I'd stay away from altogether.
@Luke Ryan here Gotcha, thanks. Good info.
I certainly won't bet on Baltimore then. I just am not sure about Niners and Giants. And I am thinking I like Atlanta (at least this week still vs Oakland) and Miami a lot.
The rest of the other games are not too good I don't think. I kinda like Denver on Monday night a little though as well.
Some things... Baltimore is way better at home, and Dallas tends to struggle against good teams.
Man the Giants beat SF in SF last year. How can you pass up more than 3 points for NYG?
And what about these...
- Atlanta at home vs Raiders team that has to travel. They lost both road games this year by over 30 points or something, right?
- Miami at home vs the dome Rams without their best WR. I think the Dolphins dominate them at home?
- I like the Colts getting points against the sad sack Jets?