.jpg&w=244&h=193&zc=1 "Star's Shares: 5/14/13")
SP Projection Notes
There will be no fancy introduction. The revolution will not be televised. The rabbit hole awaits you. Go.
I could have ranked Clayton Kershaw as my fourth SP, behind Justin Verlander, Stephen Strasburg and Cliff Lee, but I never pay top price for any Starting Pitcher. Ole' peg leg does not concern me. Press the ignore button and watch the problem disappear. Weeeeeeee! [Kershaw makes the Do-Not-Trust List]
If my future self (I don't trust your future self) came back to tell me Stephen Strasburg pitched 220+ Innings in 2013, he'd sit atop my SP rankings. I stuck him with 195 IP, but again, who cares. Million Dollar Managers do not pay $30 for any SP. I'll let someone else blow their wad on this Bat Boy look-a-like.
Felix Hernandez will not pitch for any of my teams. He will receive no run support (see: poor Win total), he has elbow issues, he is losing velocity and he just got paid. It's all downhill from here. Let's leave Felix to the Brandon Funstons of the world.
Matt Cain will not pitch for my Y! roto league. Cain loses value in leagues that limit Innings Pitched (Ks turn to K/9). Don't pay big money for a guy who strikes out seven per nine and relies on an outstanding BABIP and HR/FB%. You're paying for his ceiling if you do so. Speaking of which...
Jered Weaver is another Roofio. But unlike Cain, Weaver is projected to be under 7.00 K/9 (league average was 7.5 in 2012). Weaver actually hurts your strikeout total in capped roto leagues. The only thing saving his numbers is the spectacular BABIP he posts each season. Limiting line drives and ground balls will produce favorable BABIP numbers, but again, you're paying for his ceiling. A Felix Hernandez-like BABIP would turn Jered into Jeff. Just for fun: a .302 BABIP would shoot his WHIP up to 1.26; his ERA up to 4.13. Hey look! It's Gavin Floyd!
What the hell was up with Tim Lincecum's 4.35 BB/9 last season? I don't know; I was in the woods all summer! I stuck him with a 3.56 BB/9, which is close to his career average. It took awhile but maybe Mariners fans can be happy about drafting Brandon Morrow; trading him not so much. Will I draft Lincecum? Maybe, if I get caught price fixing.
I still love Brandon Morrow and Mat Latos.
This years Jeff Sandwichartista: Andrew Cashner. It was an incredibly small sample size (five GS, 19.1 IP), but Cashner threw 95.9 mph as a starter and posted a 10.71 K/9 versus a 1.40 BB/9. He is the 98th SP taken at MockDraftCentral.com. He may not rock the facial hair, but he qualifies as a Must-Stash.
I feel guilty about ranking Jon Lester outside my Top 25 SP.
For all those people who say Yu Darvish is going to reduce his walk rate I have one thing to say: "Fuck Yu!" A guy who is more Edinson Volquez than Stephen Strasburg should not be drafted inside the Top 60 overall players. I've heard it all from, "He didn't want to embarass MLB players right away" to "He was learning the strike zone." This is homer talk. You couch jockeys are funny.
To everyone who drafts Johnny Cueto as a Top 20 SP: good luck Quaid. Kuato is a mutant. So don't get upset when you see him. Yeah, that was a reference from the original Total Recall.
I don't see much difference between my projections for R.A. Dickey and Phil Hughes [7.16 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, .277 BABIP, 11.7% HR/FB% for RAD, 7.67 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, .281 BABIP, 9.1 HR/FB% for Phil Huggies). The two are separated by 150 picks at MDC. Just pointing it out.
No one does the fist pump after drafting Doug Fister, but he is better than you think. Give me some odds and I'll take Fister over Johnny Kuato.
There are a lot of injury concerns inside my Top 60 SP, but it's better to take the risk on a Jake Peavy than to draft a shitty Pitcher who has no history of injury. Don't pass up a good pitcher for Jon Niese.
I have to say this because parents people just don't understand. These pitchers suck: Ryan Dempster, Jeremy Hellickson, Homer Bailey, Jarrod Parker, Ervin Santana, Jason Hammel, Justin Masterson, Clay Buchholz and John Lannan. Technically, I think everyone knows John Lannan sucks but it's so fun to say. John Lannan sucks!
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SP Projections
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Commence Beef the Series.
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I didn't bother with a projection for Ricky Romero. His K and BB ratios are below average and his BABIP could be very ugly. He seems to do a good job of limiting Line Drives, but still. He is boring and pitches in the AL East. Plus the injury thing. People need to get off this "groundball pitcher" meme.
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Homer is actually number 66 on the projection chart. He shouldn't be drafted in standard mixed leagues. Technically he should be rostered in Blog Wars (15 teams), but Ill try to get my SP5 before then. People like Homer because A) they're blind followers of FIP or xFIP and/or B) they want to pretend they found a "post hype sleeper". Homer would be useful if it weren't for those pesky Base Hits. FIP ignores Base Hits (beyond stupid). Projection: 12 W, 161 K, 1.30 WHIP, 4.10 ERA (200 IP). I try to avoid anything over a 1.29 WHIP and 3.99 ERA. We want to win right? Homer doesn't help us.
@andrewakamds Thanks for doing the heavy lifting for me, I'll let somebody else have him.
I've seen a lot of love on the Homer Bailey front this draft season. Humor me with a projection? Ricky Romero was terrible last year but hurt, I think he's healthy again, what's your take on him?
