The posting around here will be slow for a few days, maybe a week, while I'm working behind the scenes. I have officially declared war on xFIP with my newly created mdsFIP ERA forecasting system. I'm also working on a BABIP Gone Wild piece that will be included in the Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide that Charlie from FB365, Mark from FBHotStove and I am working on. I mentioned this during the And His Name Was Jose Lopez podcast (which you can listen to via the widget to the right or download here) so I thought I'd give you a little sneak peak of what I made reference to earlier. A small taste should only excite your ravenous hunger and keep me from appearing to be lazy. I'll probably start leaking SP projections within a week (7 business days). Make the jump for a sneak peak of what's to come.
BABIP is a stat that is not very consistent for some players. These deviations are what lead to players being labeled and shoved into groups that include; “players who should experience regression” (Carlos Gonzalez, Austin Jackson, Adrian Beltre, etc.) and “players who should bounce back” (Matt Kemp, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, etc.). The BABIP numbers that are either too low or too high to maintain are often our Sleeper and Bust candidates. That’s all good stuff, but here and now, we are concerning ourselves with the players who are giving us trouble with our projections. Players who have a short or non-existent track record (rookies) can be difficult to forecast. There is even a small group of older players who leave us wondering if they can bounce back (Derek Jeter, Chipper Jones, Todd Helton, etc.). The players we’re going to look at? Well, let me just say this: if we threw a BABIP party, this group of players would take off their tops for a free t-shirt. We’re talking about BABIP Gone Wild and luckily for you, we’re combining our greatest BABIP Gone Wild programs (which include, Wildest Playas in America, BABIP Gone Wild: 1B Uncovered, BABIP Gone Wild Invades 2B and more) into one grand feature.
Rickie Weeks Milwaukee Second Baseman
2005 BABIP .290 (360 AB)
2006 BABIP .351 (359 AB)
2007 BABIP .287 (409 AB)
2008 BABIP .277 (475 AB)
2010 BABIP .332 (651 AB)
Roving BABIP numbers, unpredictable Line Drive Percentages and three wrist injuries make Rickie Weeks a real wild card. There’s a thin line between a 25/25 season and logging less than 400 AB. Rickie is not the type of player you want to settle down with if you’re looking for a trusting relationship. His LD% has peaked at 20% twice, bottomed out at 15% twice and fell between the two extremes twice. If you want to play it safe with a Rickie Weeks projection, we could simply use his career average BABIP (.309). After sifting through his splits, my instincts told me to use a .311 BABIP.
2011 Projection: .311 BABIP (560 AB, 154 K, 23 HR) .254 AVG
Likely BABIP Range: .280 to .335
Likely Batting Average Range: .233 to .270
Lol very nice. I dont get to watch as much of the Office as Id like. I havent seen that before. Very funny.
As a novice forecaster I love taking in this kind of stuff to see how I can work it into my own stuff. Hope it turns out well and helps you guys gain some deserved recognition for your work.
Already have the perfect YouTube clip picked out for the headline “BABIP Gone Wild”: