We saved the best rotation for last. The Four Horsemen of the Mets Apocalypse have arrived. I hope the Eastern seaboard is ready for conquest, war, famine and death Ric Flair, Tully Blanchard, Arn and Ole Anderson. It's hard to look at the Phillies rotation and not yell, Woooooooooooo! After the jump, your NL East Starting Pitching projections.
Roy Halladay 250 IP, 218 K, 1.04 WHIP, 3.02 ERA, 20 W
Cliff Lee 230 IP, 197 K, 1.06 WHIP, 3.13 ERA, 19 W
Roy Oswalt 210 IP, 182 K, 1.18 WHIP, 3.43 ERA, 17 W
Cole Hamels 210 IP, 203 K, 1.17 WHIP, 3.69 ERA, 15 W
Joe Blanton 195 IP, 153 K, 1.28 WHIP, 4.15 ERA, 12 W
Tommy Hanson 205 IP, 179 K, 1.16 WHIP, 3.20 ERA, 16 W
Tim Hudson 220 IP, 139 K, 1.24 WHIP, 3.68 ERA, 15 W
Brandon Beachy 180 IP, 163 K, 1.26 WHIP, 3.60 ERA, 13 W
Jair Jurrjens 190 IP, 140 K, 1.36 WHIP, 4.03 ERA, 13 W
Derek Lowe 195 IP, 133 K, 1.37 WHIP, 4.06 ERA, 13 W
Josh Johnson 210 IP, 211 K, 1.11 WHIP, 2.87 ERA, 17 W
Ricky Nolasco 195 IP, 190 K, 1.16 WHIP, 3.60 ERA, 15 W
Anibal Sanchez 185 IP, 155 K, 1.30 WHIP, 3.60 ERA, 13 W
Javier Vazquez 200 IP, 159 K, 1.37 WHIP, 4.59 ERA, 10 W
Chris Volstad 185 IP, 109 K, 1.39 WHIP, 4.33 ERA, 10 W
New York Mets
Johan Santana 115 IP, 90 K, 1.21 WHIP, 3.76 ERA, 7 W
R.A. Dickey 215 IP, 129 K, 1.21 WHIP, 3.89 ERA, 13 W
Jonathan Niese 190 IP, 165 K, 1.34 WHIP, 3.98 ERA, 12 W
Mike Pelfrey 205 IP, 117 K, 1.38 WHIP, 4.13 ERA, 12 W
Chris Capuano 180 IP, 141 K, 1.34 WHIP, 4.40 ERA, 11 W
Jordan Zimmermann 165 IP 155 K, 1.27 WHIP, 3.71 ERA, 12 W
John Lannan 180 IP, 95 K, 1.38 WHIP, 4.30 ERA, 8 W
Livan Hernandez 205 IP, 113 K, 1.42 WHIP, 4.52 ERA, 9 W
Not included: Chris Young, Tom Gorzelanny, Jason Marquis
Pretty clean podcast overall. Thought the Beckett bit was hilarious. Loved how you stood strong for Young with Starbonell throwing all those numbers at you, ha. I agree Young is slightly overrated, but not to the degree Starbonell was going on about.
Most outrageous statement had to be the Fowler-Crawford Starbonell love. I’m thinking 7/13 on the HR/SB split. Though I do see a Crawford-lite player lying in the weeds around that 235 ADP Fowler is going at right now.
Not sure why Cueto's Fangraphs profile has the Cutter on there. His PitchFX data doesn't show that. His Changeup is getting better. It was dropping more as the season went along. His Slider was better, more consistent. I'm guessing he'd get more Ks if his Slider had more horizontal movement and it'd be nice to see him get ahead in the count with more First Strike Pitches. That 55% F-Strike% isn't very good. It'd be nice to see it closer to 60%. It appears he's getting better at limiting HR per Fly Ball. Some people think this isn't a skill, but some people are loked out in the head. The consistent improvement is too much to argue against. There are some things I like here, some I don't. A 30% usage rate for the Slider + Dusty Baker could be flirting with danger. He's young and improving though.
About to sit down some fava beans and a nice chianti and listen to the lastest podcast. If I make it thorugh the messed up base in the intro and sacred stitch product placement I'll comment on the most ridiculous statment. Don't let me down MDS!
P.S. Good to see Starbonell moving on up to sirus radio.
Oh man, I leave to watch some Top Chef and a novel breaks out, ha.
I'll just say don't do it to the Hellickson v. Kennedy arguement. It will hurt...bad. Oh, and I'm leaving Mike and Ike to you and whomever takes the your draft guide as biblical scripture MDS, ha. Maybe I'll base my early nominations off of it since I'm sure many in the league will read it.
I think i am slowly coming onto Jonny Cueto this year late in drafts. Maybe MDS can tell me his thoughts because i haven't looked into him like he has. I noticed he's got his BB rate where it needs to be and the HR/9 rate dropped (although in that park it might be an anomoly) but in his MILB career he had great stats.
Basically it seems he needs to cut the contact rate down and lower the LD rate and get that BAA down into the lower 200's and the lower he can do that the better he'll be.
MDS- anything stick out on Cueto when you looked him over? What's the scouting report? Any hope here?
I would go right around 140-150. I believe youre spot on about him not being around during h2h playof time. That's a great thought that could be skipped over by the general public. I think that's something everyone needs to keep in mind when drafting. Maybe a later article using this logic and players to look real hard at in leagues using h2h if you plan on making them lol.
Gimme Hellickson over him and probably Ian Kennedy. However, I just don't like guys like Ian. I'm more inclined to try and kill k/9 in roto leagues. But ADP wise i wouldnt mind Ted Lilly, Jhoulys Chacin, Volquez or Cueto around that area. Cueto has always been an underachiever, but he finally woke up and developed another pitch. The cutter could help his game if he can continue to use it effectively. Im not sure why he throws the slider so much anyways. Its not like its been a great value pitch for him. It's just going to blowout his arm at that rate.
Johnny - You need to keep raising the FB speed, throw your change up and keep going with the cutter. Then sprinkle in the slider instead of using it as much as you do and then you might finally figure out how to be more effective.
Only Nationals pitcher i even glance at is Drew Storen. I don't see value in any of there starters. No matter how deep the league is and i think i would rather have Joe Blanton then any of there pitchers even though i have thoughts of a not so good season for Blanton...
might be dumb logic, but i think Joe Blanton might have a hard time winning games. If im the Nats, Marlins or any team really then i would be making sure he's the "target win" we try to get every series. If im getting Blanton, Halladay and Lee in a 3 game series then im saying "We have to get this Blanton win" and hope for the best the next two days.
Zimmer is more of a flyer pick for roto leagues. I don't think he'll be pitching during our head-to-head playoffs. Surprisingly, he's being drafted a few picks after Hellickson and before Ian Kennedy. I thought he'd be going later than that. That's a lot of confidence for a guy with an unknown Innings Cap. You guys taking the over or under on the 140 IP I used.
I truly think Cliff Lee has a better year than Roy Halladay.
Im fully avoiding guys like Jordan Zimmerman. I know he can be a great value pick with upside, but lack of wins, minimal run support, innings cap possibility, injury concerns and yet he might just suck this year are all possible to happen.
Seems like alot more risk then reward.
Not that it matters a whole lot, because he's not mixed-league relevant, but John Lannan could outproduce my projection or fall short of it. His K/9 ranges from below average to poor, I have doubts about his low BABIP numbers and he had elbow issues last season. I used a 4.75 K/9, 2.95 BB/9 and a .288 BABIP. If he ups the K rate and gets lucky with the BABIP again, he could get his WHIP down into the low 1.30s. He looked good after being called up from the minors last season. The problem I have with his BABIP is that he puts up a lot of .280-.300 numbers and has a couple extremely low .200 type months that I'm not willing to pay for. The projected numbers are ugly, but he has the potential to be an Innings eater for someone in a NL-Only league.
Just for that, I'm going to tailor my nominations to your roster needs. I'll make sure you don't have enough money to bid up Mikey.