The NL Central is Wainwright's World and it's party time. The Wolf Man will kick off the event as our opening emcee. Tonight's performers will be Marky Marcum and the Funky Bunch along with Bronson Arroyo's garage band. Just to warn you, like most parties, we have a few meatheads roaming around. Carlos Zambrano and Brett Myers could slap someone at a moments notice. If you see Carlos Silva, please steer him away from the Four Loko supply. Put on your best t-shirt, tap the keg and make the jump for your NL Central Starting Pitcher projections.
St. Louis Cardinals
Chris Carpenter 215 IP, 168 K, 1.17 WHIP, 3.43 ERA, 15 W
Jaime Garcia 185 IP, 152 K, 1.31 WHIP, 3.55 ERA, 14 W
Jake Westbrook 200 IP, 120 K, 1.35 WHIP, 4.14 ERA, 13 W
Zack Greinke 205 IP, 179 K, 1.20 WHIP, 3.29 ERA, 16 W
Yovani Gallardo 195 IP, 209 K, 1.27 WHIP, 3.32 ERA, 16 W
Shaun Marcum 185 IP, 155 K, 1.12 WHIP, 3.50 ERA, 13 W
Chris Narveson 190 IP, 153 K, 1.33 WHIP, 4.26 ERA, 12 W
Randy Wolf 210 IP, 146 K, 1.35 WHIP, 4.54 ERA, 11 W
Edinson Volquez 195 IP, 206 K, 1.33 WHIP, 3.69 ERA, 14 W
Johnny Cueto 185 IP, 143 K, 1.25 WHIP, 3.89 ERA, 13 W
Travis Wood 195 IP, 160 K, 1.16 WHIP, 3.42 ERA, 15 W
Bronson Arroyo 210 IP, 119 K, 1.26 WHIP, 4.37 ERA, 13 W
Homer Bailey 175 IP, 151 K, 1.33 WHIP, 4.06 ERA, 10 W
Ryan Dempster 210 IP, 200 K, 1.31 WHIP, 3.94 ERA, 14 W
Matt Garza 205 IP, 156 K, 1.26 WHIP, 4.08 ERA, 14 W
Carlos Zambrano 200 IP, 168 K, 1.37 WHIP, 3.96 ERA, 14 W
Randy Wells 195 IP, 148 K, 1.33 WHIP, 3.97 ERA, 13 W
Wandy Rodriguez 195 IP, 181 K, 1.26 WHIP, 3.60 ERA, 13 W
Brett Myers 210 IP, 166 K, 1.29 WHIP, 4.03 ERA, 11 W
Bud Norris 180 IP, 183 K, 1.32 WHIP, 3.85 ERA, 12 W
J.A. Happ 155 IP, 126 K, 1.29 WHIP, 4.01 ERA, 8 W
James McDonald 190 IP, 179 K, 1.28 WHIP, 3.55 ERA, 10 W
Not included: Kyle Lohse, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton, Kevin Correia, Paul Maholm. If you want me to project numbers for those four Pittsburgh Pirates, get Tony Robbins on the line. I have no motivation to do such a thing. The team can't play defense, can't hit and those Pitchers do not strike out enough batters to get my juices going.
Good stuff Donny. I scaled back Waino's IP workload, from 230 IP to 0. This is going to be a rough season for Cards fans. Who is going down first, Berkman or Carp?
I may scale back the IP workload and factor in a couple missed starts to rest a sore arm. Say 210-215 IP.
@BLAZE I didn't mean he is overpriced. Just that I don't spend more than $25 on one Pitcher so he's likely out of my price range. Someone will want him more than me.
So basically he was wacking off and hurt himself. Must be a vigorous session. I know im always fine afterwords.
LOL @ Stephania Bell's take on all injury risks. What does she know? She'd get last in a fantasy league.
and im in STL and know the deal with Waino. The risk is certainly there, but he is "supposedly" in a monster conditioning program and has changed the way he workouts/eats etc. He also done an interview on the tube where he said 20 wins wasn't really gratifying, because it wasn't good enough to get him into the playoffs or win a CY Young, so he says he'll have to do better (tons of guys would love to collect money and win 20 games. Hell alot of guys are driven to collect money and win nothing). Here is a guy that says 20 wins is not enough. This is one of the most hungry guys in baseball and he wants to be the best. IMO.
and i don't believe he's that expensive at all. The guy has been one of the most valuable fantasy pitchers the past (x) amount of starts. He's a beast and he's well worth whatever someone invests in him barring this injury being worse then lead on. So if you don't want him because of injury concerns then i understand. But if you think he'll be fine and won't draft him because he's not worth it then you're crazy.
He'll be great value as long as he's pitching.
Your projection on Wainwright will probably be fine IF he's healthy all year, but I agree with you he's too pricey right now, I can't see ever spending that much on a SP, especially this year with the crazy depth, but if I did it certainly wouldn't be anybody with injury concerns.
"The starter said an examination of the elbow, which has a partial tear of the ligament, showed no structural issues."
This may be the best quote of all time: "He said he first injured the elbow by jerking it awkwardly as he was sleeping the night before his 19th victory."
Wainwright is too expensive for me so I would have never drafted him, but I may reconsider the Innings workload here. Thanks for the heads up.
Here's the most recent article that discusses it:
Article from the end of last year touching on it:
Stephania Bell's take on all injury risks entering the drafts (discusses Wainwright):
It's all somewhat vague, but it's enough to concern me. Wainwright's saying all the right things, he's performing his usual spring routines, etc. Could be much about nothing, but there's risk here IMO.
You have a link for that elbow news? I don't watch, listen to or read anything from ESPN. What I'm seeing at RotoWorld and Fanball is Wainwright missed his last start due to a forearm strain, possibly from sleeping on it awkwardly. I'd be surprised if RotoWorld missed reports of a damaged ligament.
I know it's cliche to mention it now that ESPN has beat it to death, but it would be irresponsible of me as the resident physical therapist here to not mention Wainwright's elbow. He has a known partial tear of "his elbow ligament" in his pitching elbow, of course there are more than 1 but's let's assume it's the most commonly injured UCL (Tommy John ligament). He was shut down late last year for stiffness and inflammation, 2 of the most common symptoms that arise as a precursor for TJ surgery. Ligaments do not heal by themselves, as static structures they lack the blood supply of muscles and bones to heal, so the only course of action in this case is to strengthen the muscles around the joint to alleviate the strain on the ligaments. That tear is still there, and with his arm action I think it's a matter of time before it eventually gives way, could it be this season?
Wainwright says he's fine, the team doctor's have cleared him for full duty, so maybe everything is just great. It is, however, enough risk that it bumps him out of my own personal top 10 SP's this year, makes your projection very optimisitic (230 IP!) and I'd be careful drafting him.
Dusty Baker to Edinson Volquez. "You will pitch 195 innings and you will like it".
You've already condemned McDonald's career after 16 MLB starts? It's over? He's in regression mode? You don't like the big K numbers from the minors? You don't like the big curve? The improving changeup? The sweet lineup giving him run support? OK, that last one isn't true. I got Micky D putting up 8.48 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 5.7% HR/FB% and a .313 BABIP. He's improving. Jump on the bandwagon. Drafting a Pirates Pitcher and making a profit puts hair on your chest.
Marcum and Volquez are ADP all-stars right now. Though I don't think Volquez will make it 195 IP like you have projected. What went into the McDonald's projection? In my view he was horrible control and below average stuff. His one postive on keeping the ball in the park won't be enough to save him. I'd make a working at McD's joke here, but it's too easy so I'll leave you with this.
James McDonald: 130 IP, 100 K, 1.50 WHIP, 4.80 ERA, 5 W
Matt Garza wasn't treated well here. His ERA was beat up by the 29 HR Allowed I have projected and he won't like the Team Defense behind him this year. Chicago had a -7 UZR last year and has downgraded at 1B and 2B. Tampa was a +32 last season.