.jpg&w=244&h=193&zc=1 "Star's Shares: 5/14/13")
Fun With Projections: Hitters
Hey. Who wants to have some fun? Now you just saying you want to have fun or do you really want to have some fun? Right now there are over 275 projections, that I calculated, sitting in the right-hand sidebar. Why don't we make the jump to the other side of this blog post and make some ridiculous proclamations!
Not only does Carlos Santana provide more value than Buster Posey at their respective ADPs (118 vs 44), but Santana will outproduce Posey as long as he is healthy (leg). Santana's power and speed (.279-19-5) will trump Posey's Batting Average (.294-18-1). Just so you know, World Series rings and Rookie of the Year awards are not fantasy statistics.
J.P. Arencibia will hit over 20 HR and push Chris Iannetta for a Top 12 spot among all Catchers.
Joe Mauer, the No.1 Catcher off the board, will struggle to reach double digit Home Runs.
Chase Utley will outproduce Robinson Cano as long as he stays healthy (thumb) and doesn't slow down on the base paths.
Ian Kinsler will outproduce everyone at Second Base if he can stay healthy (entire body).
Ryan Raburn will be a Top Twelve Second Baseman in leagues where he qualifies at the position (.275-25-85-89-5).
If Reid Brignac gets full-time At Bats, he will fail to post a .240 AVG.
Alexei Ramirez is better than Derek Jeter and Jimmy Rollins.
Alcides Escobar will be a Top Twelve Shortstop (.283-6-81-47-25).
Ian Desmond will not live up to the hype after he fails to post a Line Drive Percentage above 17%.
Jose Bautista will hit over 40 HR and completely justify his ADP (53).
Alex Gordon will be labeled a post-hype sleeper and provide us with a .264-21-82-74-12 line.
Matt Kemp will fall one Home Run short of reaching the 30/30 club.
Jay Bruce will be inside your Top Ten Outfielder rankings for the 2012 season.
Matt Holliday will not be a Top Twelve Outfielder this season.
Rajai Davis will crack the Top Twenty Outfielders in 2011 (.289-6-90-49-55).
Drew Stubbs will have a higher rank than Ichiro Suzuki in 2011.
Which stat line would you rather have?
.262-23-79-87-21 vs .267-25-88-85-12
You just chose Nate McLouth over Jayson Werth.
Vernon Wells looks like a ninja turtle.
Coco Crisp will be great... if he can stay healthy (not going to happen).
Austin Jackson will not be a Top 70 Outfielder.
Maybe a couple of these weren't ridiculous (Joe Mauer), but at least they're all true and are guaranteed to come to fruition. Everything you read here is going to happen. That comes with a money back guarantee. You won't find a better deal than that. If your hunger for projections wasn't satisfied here, you can choose from the menu:
[C] [1B] [2B] [SS] [3B] [OF] [DH]
ADP numbers provided by KFFL
Good point on Lopes. Hadn't really considered it, but I do remember Werth talking about him. I guess I'm more worried about Mattingly not giving him the green light if the CS start to pile up. With 30 SB Kemp would definitely join my top tier of outfielders, if not toping it. A tier already consisting of Hamilton, Crawford, Braun and C-Gonzo in that order.
I'm telling ya NewBVick, Davey Lopes will have Kemp stealing 30 or more bases. Shane Victorino went from 4 SB to 37 SB with his help and Jayson Werth gives all credit to Lopes for his SB totals too. Kemp already got there, he just needs his mechanics cleaned up. Matt Kemp steals 30 bases; Million Dollar Guarantee
Been a lot of fun talk about Kemp lately. I feel the need to defend MDS for once since I agree with him on Kemp. At only twenty-six years old I feel people are writing him off far too early. If you look at the numbers he was simply trying to live up to the lofty expectations people set for him last year by pushing himself and it failed. The strikeouts were far more numerous than the year before and he was getting caught stealing at a scary pace (hoping he still has the green light in 2011). The average also had some bad luck thrown in as only 21% of his BIP went for singles compared with 26% and 25% from the previous years. So a bounce back in average is a given in my opinion. That being said something caused him to fail to produce last year (Rihanna would do that to me) and it can’t simply be ignored.
Now I tend to project lower numbers in general than MDS, but make no mistake this projection has Matt Kemp as the number 5 outfielder in my rankings:
(590 AB) 90-25-85-20-.270
Don’t be a bitch like Prison Mike and draft Matt Kemp with confidence this year: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sE_9WP76U_Q&feature=related
Matt Holliday: what is the big deal about consistency if the numbers you are getting are not worthy of the ADP? You want to safely finish in 6th place? If you draft a guy in Rd 2 and there are 10 Outfielders drafted after him that will put up better stats, you're not doing a good job in the war room.
The Matt Holliday hate continues!!!
Seriously, maybe we need to do a Bruce vs Holliday bet or something.
I agree with most of your stuff, but not Stubbs, Rajai, or Holliday.
Agreed:
- Alexi over Jeter and Rollins.
- Vernon Wells looks like a ninja turtle.
Most ridiculous:
- Alcides Escobar will be a top-12 SS.
Disagree with everything else (though slightly below on some numbers such as the Kemp 30/30). I'll have to throw out my own fearless forecasts sometime before pitchers/cathers report.
Also, some comments aren't appearing under some of the posts. Just a heads up.
No. I dont like Hamada2700 either, but the other four videos didn't allow embedding.
Which was the most ridiculous statement made here? They're all the same to me, because they're all true.
