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Fantasy Baseball: Advanced Stats Primer
Sorry lady-killers, but there’s no nerds allowed
Photo Credit: greggoconnell
Advanced stats in fantasy baseball can be very useful. Unfortunately, most advanced stats have little bearing on fantasy value. WAR, what is it good for? Jack shit homey.
Now there are obviously some advanced stats that can be critical tools in the quest for fantasy glory. We call these stats “Starbometrics.” You see, “Starbometrics” focuses solely on the advanced stats that actually help portend fantasy greatness or failure. There are so many different statistics out there that many people (fantasy “experts” especially) try to cite in an effort to make it seem like they know what the fuck they are talking about. That doesn’t go down here at Sons of Roto.
So to help break down the only advanced stats that matter, your boy Big Poppa Pockets has decided to drum up a primer that strictly looks at the stuff that matters in fantasy.
Class begins after the jump:
Advanced Stats For Hitters
The Advanced Stat: Contact Percentage
The Abbreviation: Contact%
What’s a Good Contact%: Anything over 82 percent
What’s a Bad Contact%: Anything below 79 percent
Why You Should Use It: Contact% measures the percentage of swings a hitter takes that they actually make contact on. It’s a good “trend” tool, which is to say that it’s useful to see if there is a trend (one way or the other) in a hitter’s Contact% from year-to-year. Increases in Contact% could mean a hitter is displaying better plate discipline and swinging at better pitches to hit. Decreases in Contact% could point to a loss of bat speed or be the result of a hitter changing his approach.
The Advanced Stat: Ground Ball Percentage and Line Drive Percentage
The Abbreviation: GB% and LD%
What’s a Good GB%: Anything around or below 40 percent
What’s a Good LD%: Anything above 19 percent
What’s a Bad GB%: 50 percent or higher
What’s a Bad LD%: 16 percent of below
These stats literally measure the percentage of batted balls a hitter laces or puts on the ground. A high GB% and low LD% can help explain why a hitter has a very low BABIP. Conversely, a high LD% and low GB% are the calling cards of hitters who are performing very well and making consistently good contact, putting balls in play that are tougher to field. It’s worth noting that some speedy players can get by with a high GB% since their wheels allow them to beat out throws to first on “routine” grounders.
The Advanced Stat: Isolated Power
The Abbreviation: ISO
Use It Instead Of: Slugging Percentage
What’s a Good ISO: .190-.210
What’s a Great ISO: Anything above .220
What’s a Bad ISO: .140 or below
This stat is calculated by a really super scientific method of… subtracting Slugging Percentage from Batting Average. Sounds basic? Well, this eliminates all the singles a hitter raps, leaving us solely with the extra-bases (which are a better indicator of power, obviously). We’re big fans of this stat here, mostly because it’s an easy-to-understand statistic that has proven to be incredibly accurate.
The Advanced Stat: Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio
The Abbreviation: HR/FB
Use It Instead Of: HRs and Slugging Percentage
What’s a Good HR/FB: 15-17 percent
What’s a Great HR/FB: 20 percent or above
What’s a Bad HR/FB: Anything below 10 percent
By measuring the percentage of fly balls a hitters has turn into HRs, HR/FB gives us a good idea of how much power a hitter possesses. This stat can be influenced by home ballpark, as players hitting in San Diego will naturally have a lower HR/FB ratio while a batter in, say, Yankee Stadium will have a much higher HR/FB ratio. It’s not a perfect stat, but if a player spends a few years with one team, it’s a solid “trend” tool to see if they are sending more (or fewer) fly balls out of the stadium.
The Advanced Stat: Infield Fly Ball Percentage
The Abbreviation: IFFB%
What’s a Good IFFB%: Anything below nine percent
What’s a Bad IFFB%: Anything above 13 percent
This statistic literally measures the percentage batted balls turn into infield fly balls. We don’t use this stat all that much, but it helps to explain some BABIP issues players may be having. Infield flys are the easiest batted balls for fielders to turn into outs, so if you see a player trending negatively in this area, chances are there batting average is suffering a bit.
The Advanced Stat: Strikeout Percentage and Walk Percentage
The Abbreviation: K% and BB%
Use It Instead Of: Strikeouts and OBP
What’s a Good K%: 16-18 percent
What’s a Good BB%: Anything in double-digits
What’s a Bad K%: Anything above 20 percent
What’s a Bad BB%: Anything below seven percent
These statistics literally tracks the percentages of plate appearances that end with either a walk or strikeout. They are among the best “trend” tools fantasy owners can use to see if a hitter’s plate patience is improving or eroding. They may not be considered “advanced stats” by all of you, but they are worth mentioning solely because of the value they possess.
The Advanced Stat: Swinging Strike Percentage
The Abbreviation: SwStr%
Use It Instead Of: Strikeouts
What’s a Good SwStr%: Anything below eight percent
What’s a Great SwStr%: Anything below 6.5 percent
What’s a Bad SwStr%: Anything above nine percent
One of my favorites. This statistic is measured by calculating how many swings a hitter takes that result in no contact whatsoever (a swing and miss). Sometimes, hitters have a high K%, but if their SwStr% is trending in a positive direction, it gives us hope that they aren’t completely lost at the plate. Another quality “trend” tool, but it also stands as a great single season measure of success.
The Advanced Stat: Weighted On Base Average
The Abbreviation: wOBA
Use It Instead Of: OPS
What’s a Good wOBA: .350-.370
What’s a Great wOBA: Anything above .380
What’s a Bad wOBA: Anything below .330
The calculation is so complex for wOBA, that I can’t even begin to describe it. What I can tell you is that it takes all offensive contributions a hitter makes. It then spits out a number that is scaled in the same way as OBP. It sounds convoluted, but it’s proven to be more accurate than OPS at measuring a hitter’s overall production. The problem with OPS is that it treats Slugging Percentage and On-Base Percentage as equal by simply adding the two together. However, given the fatal flaw with SLG (a hitter can go 2-for-2 with two singles and have a 1.000 SLG that day) and the overly basic OPS calculation, wOBA gives fantasy owners a better alternative. Look at the best hitters every year, and you’ll see they were among the league leaders in wOBA.
Advanced Stats For Pitchers
The Advanced Stat: Contact Percentage
The Abbreviation: Contact%
Use It Instead Of: Batting Average Against
What’s a Good Contact%: 76 percent or below
What’s a Bad Contact%: 82 percent or higher
Contact% measures the percentage of swings an opposing hitter takes that they actually make contact on. It’s a proper “trend” tool that tracks if a pitcher is giving up more or less contact as their career progresses.
The Advanced Stat: Fielding Independent Pitching and Expected Fielding Independent Pitching
The Abbreviation: FIP and xFIP
Use It Instead Of: ERA
What’s a Good FIP/xFIP: Anything below 3.85
What’s a Great FIP/xFIP: Anything below 3.5
What’s a Bad FIP/xFIP: Anything above 4.1
The Sons of Roto aren’t very fond of FIP or xFIP, but they still have some value. The way these two stats are calculated is by taking into account things only the pitcher is responsible for (walks, strikeouts, HRs) and then spitting out a number that is scaled to look like ERA. These stats are great because they remove the luck factor associated with a pitcher’s defense. The difference between FIP and xFIP is that xFIP uses the league average HR/FB for pitchers to put them all on an even playing field. The problem with that is that home parks ABSOLUTELY play a major role in a pitcher’s ERA, so giving a pitcher in San Diego and a pitcher in Yankee Stadium the same HR/FB makes little sense because if each of those pitcher’s traded parks, their HR totals would change drastically. These stats can be useful when looking at whether or not a pitcher is experiencing some luck, but context needs to be used when incorporating these stats.
The Advanced Stat: First Pitch Strike Percentage
The Abbreviation: F-Strike%
What’s a Good F-Strike%: 61 percent or higher
What’s a Bad F-Strike%: Below 58.5 percent
This statistic measures the number of first pitches a hurler throws that result in a strike. It essentially measures how good a pitcher is at getting ahead in the count, which (as every old timer and baseball announcer will tell you) is important. It’s a terrific “trend” tool that can help track whether or not a player is getting better at the art of pitching.
The Advanced Stat: Ground Ball Percentage and Line Drive Percentage
The Abbreviation: GB% and LD%
What’s a Good GB%: Anything above 45 percent
What’s a Good LD%: Anything below 18 percent
What’s a Bad GB%: Anything below 40 percent
What’s a Bad LD%: Anything above 20 percent
Just like with hitters, these stats measure the percentage of batted balls that end up as grounders or line drives. Another quality “trend” tool.
