Here, you take him
Photo Credit: Keith Allison
Shield your eyes! Clay Buchholz is trying to pull wool over them!
His numbers so far in 2013 have been stellar, but if you own any shares of Buchholz, the time has come to sell.
More after the jump:
Clay Buchholz is 6-0. His ERA is a Type-A tidy 1.01. He’s striking out more people than ever. This is the best stretch of his professional career, but don’t get it twisted. This is merely a “stretch.” There’s so many areas in which he’s performing over his head that his new mantra should be “But I Regress.”
Let’s start with the strikeouts. He owns a 9.47 K/9, which is almost three points higher than his career mark (6.85). His current 8.1 SwStr% is actually his lowest mark ever. So how does a pitcher who is inducing his lowest percentage of swings-and-misses ever end up with such a high K/9? Damned if I know, but it’s pretty safe to say that the strikeout rate is set to nose-dive back to reality.
Sure many of you will take the big strikeout hit if he maintains a sterling ERA and WHIP, but that shit won’t continue. His fastball velocity (average 92.0 mph) is the lowest it’s been since 2007. He’s showing more movement than he has in the last couple of years on his pitches, but not enough to suddenly transform him into one of the more dominant hurlers in baseball. Even the batted ball profile looks almost exactly the same as it did a season ago... except for the HR/FB, which sits at an unsustainable 3.1 mark.
So let’s recap. Buchholz’s strikeout numbers are due to come screaming back down to earth (and a mediocre earth at that). He’s showing very little difference in terms of the results he is getting on his pitches (minus a microscopic HR rate that is just begging to be corrected). Oh, and we might as well mention that he pitches in a hitter’s park/division.
His value will never be higher. In fact, I can guarantee that it will fall way, WAY below where it is now. See that hot iron? Time to strike it.