.jpg&w=244&h=193&zc=1 "Star's Shares: 5/14/13")
AL Central SP Projections
My method of projecting numbers for Starting Pitching is time consuming. The plan of action starts out with processing information available in a player's Pitching/FX page. Then it's onto the four pieces of paper; one for calculating FIP and my improved version of the ERA forecaster, a second for calculating HR allowed and Hits allowed, another for chicken scratch and the last for recording all relevant information. I find the Pitch/FX tool to be far more useful than Pitch Values, which can be a flawed statistic. Anyway, onto the majority of AL Central SP.
Minnesota Twins
Francisco Liriano 200 IP, 208 K, 1.22 WHIP, 3.02 ERA, 18 W
Scott Baker 180 IP, 154 K, 1.26 WHIP, 3.90 ERA, 14 W
Kevin Slowey 140 IP, 112 K, 1.22 WHIP, 3.86 ERA, 10 W
Carl Pavano 210 IP, 113 K, 1.26 WHIP, 4.07 ERA, 14 W
Detroit Tigers
Justin Verlander 220 IP, 218 K, 1.17 WHIP, 3.15 ERA, 19 W
Max Scherzer 200 IP, 188 K, 1.26 WHIP, 3.78 ERA, 14 W
Rick Porcello 195 IP, 115 K, 1.25 WHIP, 3.92 ERA, 14 W
Phil Coke 190 IP, 143 K, 1.34 WHIP, 4.17 ERA, 12 W
Brad Penny 155 IP, 101 K, 1.34 WHIP, 3.77 ERA, 12 W
Chicago White Sox
John Danks 205 IP, 159 K, 1.24 WHIP, 3.69 ERA, 15 W
Gavid Floyd 200 IP 162 K, 1.25 WHIP, 3.69 ERA, 15 W
Jake Peavy 175 IP, 149 K, 1.24 WHIP, 3.86 ERA, 12 W
Mark Buehrle 210 IP, 106 K, 1.33 WHIP, 4.33 ERA, 13 W
Edwin Jackson 210 IP, 186 K, 1.30 WHIP, 4.07 ERA, 14 W
Cleveland Indians
Fausto Carmona 210 IP, 130 K, 1.29 WHIP, 3.90 ERA, 13 W
Justin Masterson 190 IP, 151 K, 1.34 WHIP, 3.93 ERA, 12 W
Carlos Carrasco 200 IP, 164 K, 1.33 WHIP, 4.10 ERA, 12 W
Kansas City Royals
Luke Hochevar 160 IP, 120 K, 1.34 WHIP, 4.05 ERA, 10 W
Jeff Francis 150 IP, 95 K, 1.36 WHIP, 4.26 ERA, 8 W
If you were hoping to see Brian Duensing, Josh Tomlin, Mitch Talbot, Vin Mazzaro, Kyle Davies and/or Sean O'Sullivan, well, maybe later. I don't think they're worth the time right now.
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I wouldn't consider Phil Coke to be a young Pitcher, he'll be 29-years old come July. Pitching 65 times a season isn't easy and he was a starter in the minors. C.J. Wilson got up to 204 IP last season after making the conversion. It is tough to make a Coke projection with such small sample sizes that are evenly split between lefties n righties. I spent some time on that one. The Detroit staff is pretty darn good. I do have my doubts of Brad Penny reaching 155 IP though.
That's a pretty bullish take on the Detroit starting 5. Their home park will provide a huge advantage, but I don't see how they combine for 73 wins while all having an ERA lower than 4.
Do you really think Phil Coke can pitch 190 innings next year? He pitched 65 last year, and 60 the year before, a 300% innings jump rarely works out for young pitchers.
