Goldschmidt has huge power potential. And huge balls, look at that stance
Photo Credit: Dulamae
Tom asked for it and because I'm bored with recaps, I'll deliver. We're going to pretend the Diamondbacks called up Paul Goldschmidt and Collin Cowgill and make projections for each. We'll also make believe the Rays actually know what they're doing and called up Desmond Jennings. Three fairy tale forecasts after the jump.
Paul Goldschmidt is a big dude (6'3, 244 lbs) and he has power. Goldy leads the Southern League (AA) in Home Runs. He has 23 HR, the two players behind him have 16 HR. Paul has a comfortable lead. What's also impressive is the 59 walks to 62 strikeouts. He's also chipped in seven Stolen Bases. We're not done. Goldschmidt is a Line Drive machine, First Inning has his LD% at 23%. He posted a 22% LD% in 2009 at Rookie ball (only 16% in High-A). Is he ready to come up and start smashing Major League pitching? It's very well possible, but it's also possible his K% creeps back up closer to the 30.7% mark he posted in High-A ball. Still, even with a high K% Paul can provide a semi-respectable Batting Average with his fence clearing ability and high BABIP numbers (.390 in '09, .385 in '10, .335 in '11). Let us forecast: we'll pretend Goldy gets a full run at 1B...
At Bats: 270
Strike Outs: 75 (27.8% K%)
Fly Balls: 86 (44% FB%)
Home Runs: 15 HR (17.4% HR/FB%)
BABIP: .328 (59 Singles, Doubles, Triples)
Batting Average: .274
Stolen Bases: 4
Goldschmidt could hit another one or two Home Runs here, I didn't want to go much higher than the 17.4% HR/FB% though. He's pushing a 23.7% HR/FB% in Mobile, but his home ball park scores a 125 in HR for Right Handed Batters. Chase Field scores a 102. Goldy may not be in the PCL, but he is benefiting from a hitters park. The BABIP could be as low as .315 or as high as .340. Those numbers generally decline with each promotion (better pitching, better defense). It's hard to tell if this year's .335 BABIP is low for him or not. Few First Basemen put up high BABIP numbers (Votto, Miggy, Morse). If his BABIP were .317 the Batting Average would drop to .267. The official projection would call for a .274 AVG, 37 Runs, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 4 SB (270 AB).
Collin Cowgill is more balanced and has more minor league experience. He doesn't strike out like Goldschmidt does and he has more speed (and obviously less power). His current roto line is outstanding for only 300 At Bats: .360 AVG, 12 HR, 24 SB (2 CS). That .360 AVG is propped up by an extremely high BABIP (.392). His LD% sits at 19% and his track record for BABIP is... well it's all over the place. Collin is a PCL playboy so we must remember while his AVG is high, Anthony Rizzo's (he of a .170 AVG in MLB) was higher. Let's prognosticate: we'll pretend Gerardo Parra's defense can't phase Cowgill's At Bats (at the bottom of the order)...
At Bats: 260
Strike Outs: 43 (16.5% K%)
Fly Balls: 70 (32% FB%)
Home Runs: 6 (8.6% HR/FB%)
BABIP: .327 (69 Singles, Doubles, Triples)
Batting Average: .288
Stolen Bases: 13
The Stolen Bases are a wild card. While he has 24 now, he had only 25 the year before. He has improved his efficiency, but he is also getting more opportunities with that outrageous Batting Average. Add to that the Kirk Gibson factor, will he give him the sign to run wild (I'm picturing him doing the fist pump as the steal sign)? I like Collin Cowgill, he's worth a roster spot when/if he is called up. The official projection would call for a .288 AVG, 6 HR, 37 Runs, 33 RBI, 13 SB (260 AB).
Desmond Jennings is playing his third season in AAA. Why? Who knows. Tampa Bay sucks. I hate them. Sam Fuld is blocking Jennings with his mighty .240 Batting Average and 3 Home Runs. I'm disgusted and it only infuriates me to think about this. Let's make this quick. Desmond Jennings is fast. It appears he's trying to hit more HR this year (more Strike Outs, more Fly Balls, more HR). This will complicate the forecasting procedure. Is this an anomaly or is he trying to force Tampa's hand? Let's make some educated guesstimations: Sam Fuld is clobbered by Irwin R. Schyster's briefcase, concussed and unable to take the field (Dezzy hits at the bottom of the order)...
At Bats: 275
Strike Outs: 66 (24% K%)
Fly Balls: 84 (40% FB%)
Home Runs: 7 (8.3% HR/FB%)
BABIP: .317 (64 Singles, Doubles, Triples)
Batting Average: .258
Stolen Bases: 17
We're rolling with the new, angry Desmond Jennings. I'm not sure I agree with the new approach (if it is), but I can't blame him for being upset. Tampa Bay sucks ass when it comes to promoting talent. Jennings has only 15 SB through 279 AB, but he's capable of much more and Joe Maddon is one of the more aggressive coaches in the game. The official projection would call for a .258 AVG, 38 Runs, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 17 SB (275 AB).