and they screwed me!!! no Weekly Max IP option for custom H2H leagues

thanks to everyone who did email yahoo and ask for this, we'll get em next year.

Mock Auctions are up and running and since I've never done an auction draft, I had to test the system, explore the minor details and just get my feet wet...... and then Tim Lincecum went for $221. Some people's children. However, I did find out some useful info about myself...

- I have an itchy trigger finger
- I get jealous when ppl bid on 1st n 2nd rd players, I want em all
- Bidding solely to drive prices up doesn't always work
- Auction drafts take awhile and spending all your money early doesn't help anything

Practice makes perfect, do work son! no comments

When it comes to projecting K/9, I'm not going to bust out any scientific formulas here. I'm not that big of a sabre nerd. Frankly I think some ppl take it too far, trying to use mathematical equations on everyone. This just isn't possible, people are unique and situations vary too much to be doing this. I just busted out an uncommon amount of common sense using Fangraphs numbers. Basically I ask myself if a player's stats will improve, remain stable or decline.

When it comes to roto leagues, I prefer using k/9 rather than total Ks. It's just math. The things I look for when trying to project k/9 are O-Swing%, O-Contact%, F-Strike%, Pitch Values and Velocity, Pitch Type usage and control of the strike zone.

Rookies are a little different as their experience in MLB is limited so I don't have a lot of info to work with. Jumping levels year to year also complicates matters. You cannot simply extrapolate minor league numbers like Bill James seems to do. I'm beginning to wonder if that guy is an actual person or a robot similar to Deep Blue.

O-Swing%: making batters swing outside the zone is good. 2009 league avg: 25.1%
O-Contact%: the percentage of O-Swings that make contact, less is better. 2009 league avg: 61.8%
F-Strike%: first pitch strikes, creating a pitcher's count: 2009 league avg: 60.0%
Pitch Values: are the pitches getting better? worse?
Pitch Type Usage: I generally look for the pitches with movement, esp sliders
Control of the Strike Zone: bb/9, Zone %, F-Strike%
Other Factors: age, experience, team/league change, injury history, etc

I'll try to find a good example... how about the MDS endorsed Gavin Floyd

Through 2007-2008 (276.1 IP) Gavin's k/9 was 6.31, but in 2009 it jumped to 7.60. So what happened? He didn't use his slider much in limited time with the Phillies, but he began throwing it with the Sox and the usage has increased each year since (16.8%, 20.6%, 26.9%). The jump in slider usage has come at the expense of his fastball. This makes me happy. Not only that, but the value of the pitch is getting better. It's gone from a negative value (-2.2) and turned into a good pitch (7.5 runs above average). With increased slider usage comes a better O-Swing% and O-Contact%, resulting in more k/9. His O-Contact% dropped from 62.3% in 2008 down to 53.9% in 2009. This is a significant jump. Now while I wouldn't expect that number to be that low next season, it is important to remember that his slider usage and value is trending upward so I would expect something near 55-56%. Gavin's control of the strike zone also improved, slightly. His bb/9 dropped from 3.05 to 2.75, F-Strike% was a smidge better (55.4%, 59.9%, 60.0%), but his Zone% did drop from 51% in 2008 to 48.2% in 2009. The velocity on his fastball, slider, curve n changeup did improve slightly to career highs. So what's this all mean? My brain cave is telling me Gavin has got it going on and I would expect his jump in k/9 to be real. His O-Contact% may rise, but not to a point where he would regress to 2008-2009 levels. I have him projected at 7.4 k/9, similar to Matt Cain.

Floyd is 27 years old and will be entering his 3rd full season in the Sox rotation, which generally seems to be the point where pitcher shows improved command. His pitches are getting better and he's using his slider more. I think his improved k/9 is sustainable. He isn't expensive and nobody seems to be talking him up. This is someone I want on my teams.

When you look at a decrease or increase in k/9, you gotta dig deep and figure out what happened. Did the pitcher change up his arsenal? Did he improve a certain pitch? Is the pitcher using his breaking pitches more/less often? Was his O-Contact% lucky or unlucky? Is he losing/gaining command of his pitches? Is he throwing first pitch strikes more/less often? You cannot use some sort of quantum physics equation here, figure out what's going on and use some common sense. no comments

Top 100 SP w/ projections for k/9, WHIP, ERA. Later, I'll do a follow up post for how I projected these numbers. Basically you can use this as a template for your rankings, adjust the projections to your liking (not advised, I'm almost perfect) and go from there. The first list was very raw and missing players. This list is far from done and I (likely) will not post another updated version. I want to point something out about these first... players are not ranked based solely off my projections. Wins, injury history and ADP help shape the ranks. I'd rank Floyd ahead of Baker, but their ADPs are so far apart, I just threw Floyd behind him cuz I wouldn't draft Gavin until some time after Scotty went. Use some common sense here.

I still have work to do on players with no projections, I'm either waiting for them to sign, news of the injury to come out, info about their role or I'm just not motivated to project a scrub's numbers. I almost feel guilty giving a dude a 1.50 WHIP lol. I'm not completely confident with my projections for rookie pitchers like Davis, Matusz, Holland, Porcello, Latos, Niemann, Bailey, Bergesen, Tillman, Richard and Cahill so feel free to tweak those at your own risk.

There are more than 100 here and they are split up by groups of 16 for personal reasons... the ADPs are from Jan 7th

12.5 Tim Lincecum 10.5--1.05--2.60
27.7 Zack Greinke 9.5--1.10--3.15
34.4 Roy Halladay 8.1--1.10--3.00
37.1 Dan Haren 8.6--1.10--3.15
45.9 Justin Verlander 9.5--1.15--3.40
64.5 Jon Lester 9.2--1.15--3.15
28.1 CC Sabathia 7.8--1.20--3.45
29.2 Felix Hernandez 8.2--1.20--3.40
90.3 Josh Beckett 8.5--1.15--3.60
60.4 Javier Vazquez 8.5--1.20--3.80
64.0 Adam Wainwright 8.1--1.20--3.35
81.9 Josh Johnson 8.2--1.20--3.30
100.3 Yovani Gallardo 9.9--1.25--3.55
102.7 Cole Hamels 8.0--1.15--3.70
73.4 Chris Carpenter 6.9--1.10--3.35
111.2 Clayton Kershaw 9.7--1.25--3.85

108.7 Ricky Nolasco 8.8--1.20--3.60
113.8 Ubaldo Jimenez 8.2--1.20--3.20
86.1 Tommy Hanson 8.4--1.20--3.75
154.3 Wandy Rodriguez 8.5--1.25--3.50
52.0 Cliff Lee 6.9--1.10--3.55
81.9 Jake Peavy 8.5--1.25--3.65
40.0 Johan Santana 7.8--1.25--3.85
89.5 Matt Cain 7.3--1.20--3.50
243.0 Brett Anderson 8.3--1.25--3.60
126.0 Chad Billingsley 8.5--1.30--3.95
126.4 Matt Garza 7.8--1.30--3.85
127.2 James Shields 6.9--1.20--3.80
139.5 Jered Weaver 7.5--1.25--4.00
157.2 Scott Baker 7.2--1.20--4.20
187.1 Gavin Floyd 7.4--1.25--3.80
223.1 Kevin Slowey 7.2--1.20--4.20

141.0 Brandon Webb 7.2--1.20--3.40
126.7 AJ Burnett 8.7--1.35--4.20
147.8 Max Scherzer 9.2--1.35--4.20
172.4 Ryan Dempster 7.7--1.30--3.75
116.3 John Lackey 7.0--1.30--4.00
210.6 Rich Harden 9.6--1.30--4.00
151.4 Roy Oswalt 6.8--1.25--3.75
177.3 David Price 7.9--1.30--4.20
169.5 Carlos Zambrano 7.6--1.30--3.95
162.2 John Danks 7.0--1.30--4.20
152.4 Ted Lilly 7.7--1.20--4.15
314.6 Francisco Liriano 8.3--1.35--4.35
310.7 Ben Sheets 7.1--1.25--3.95
176.1 Scott Kazmir 8.7--1.35--4.15
202.8 Jorge de la Rosa 9.1--1.35--4.00
272.0 Hiroki Kuroda 6.5--1.20--3.70

311.9 Aaron Harang 7.6--1.30--4.00
328.8 Shaun Marcum 7.3--1.25--4.25
196.2 Daisuke Matsuzaka 8.4--1.35--4.50
200.5 Clay Buchholz 7.5--1.35--4.00
134.0 Jair Jurrens 6.5--1.33--3.82
334.1 Marc Rzepczynski 8.8--1.40--4.00
186.3 Randy Wolf 7.1--1.30--4.30
203.7 Joba Chamberlain 8.0--1.40--4.40
231.1 Johnny Cueto 7.5--1.35--4.40
241.0 Jonathan Sanchez 9.7--1.40--4.20
168.9 Edwin Jackson 6.9--1.35--4.30
224.3 Erik Bedard 7.9--1.30--3.90
208.0 Tim Hudson 6.3--1.28--3.65
237.0 Mark Buerhle 4.7--1.30--4.40
Wade Davis 8.0--1.35--4.15
327.1 Brian Matusz 7.6--1.35--4.40

329.6 Derek Holland 7.2--1.40--4.35
333.0 John Maine 7.4--1.35--4.40
296.1 Stephen Strasburg
323.2 Madison Bumgarner
245.0 JA Happ 7.0--1.30--4.50
290.2 Homer Bailey 7.0--1.35--4.40
310.5 Barry Zito 7.0--1.35--4.40
229.6 Ervin Santana 6.9--1.35--4.45
225.4 Jeff Niemann 6.5--1.35--4.50
297.5 Joe Blanton 6.5--1.35--4.50
328.1 Brett Myers 7.3--1.35--4.40
334.8 Carl Pavano 6.2--1.30--4.00
283.2 Kevin Correia 6.5--1.35--4.20
323.0 Matt Latos 6.9--1.35--4.50
327.1 Randy Wells 6.0--1.35--4.25
208.6 Rick Porcello 5.5--1.35--4.30

282.4 Gil Meche 7.0--1.35--4.50
324.2 Brad Penny 5.7--1.40--4.50
332.6 Brad Bergesen 5.1--1.30--4.20
229.7 Scott Feldman 5.4--1.35--4.50
278.9 Joel Pineiro 4.8--1.30--4.25
210.4 Andy Pettitte 6.8--1.40--4.35
318.5 Derek Lowe 5.6--1.35--4.15
330.3 Clayton Richard 6.9--1.40--4.15
319.5 Bronson Arroyo 6.0--1.35--4.50
333.8 Kenshin Kawakami 6.5--1.35--4.45
378.4 Kyle Lohse 5.7--1.35--4.45
Colby Lewis 6.9--1.37--4.60
Bud Norris 8.2--1.45--4.40
Felipe Paulino 8.0--1.45--4.45
331.8 Trevor Cahill 5.6--1.35--4.55
333.2 Chris Tillman 6.4--1.40--5.00

328.8 Nick Blackburn 4.3--1.35--4.50
333.5 Jason Hammel 6.3--1.45--4.50
Aroldis Chapman
333.7 Paul Maholm 5.7--1.40--4.25
597.7 Charlie Morton 5.8--1.40--4.50
331.1 Kevin Millwood 5.6--1.45--4.75
543.9 Jake Westbrook 5.0--1.40--4.30
421.9 Dave Bush 6.7--1.35--4.70
333.6 Paul Ohlendorf 5.5--1.40--4.60
260.9 Joe Saunders 5.0--1.40--4.55
324.1 Zack Duke 4.5--1.40--4.30
275.3 Aaron Cook 4.2--1.40--4.15
331.6 Jason Marquis
333.0 Tommy Hunter
350.8 Anibal Sanchez
474.6 Jeremy Bonderman

443.6 Gio Gonzalez
327.6 Jeremy Guthrie
332.6 Vicente Padilla
355.7 Jon Garland
440.5 Brian Bannister
382.6 Yusmeiro Petit
450.8 Brandon McCarthy
326.1 Chris Young
428.1 Ian Snell
636.9 Jake Arrieta
497.4 Manny Parra
429.1 Fausto Carmona
402.2 Armando Galarraga
332.8 Mike Pelfrey
328.8 Doug Davis
319.1 Jarrod Washburn
428.1 Andrew Miller
389.8 Oliver Perez
473.6 Brett Cecil 6.5--1.50--4.75
330.4 Micah Owings

334.6 Dustin McGowan
418.8 Chien-Ming Wang
332.6 John Smoltz
311.6 Pedro Martinez

323.0 Philip Hughes
326.2 Justin Duchscherer
493.3 Kelvim Escobar
Robinson Tejeda
560.4 Brian Duensing

Luke Hochevar
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Ricky Romero
Brandon Morrow
no comments

It's been close to a month since I recorded the ADP for SP from MDC. Let's see who is trending. I am mainly concerned about the juicy pitchers going around Rd 7 thru 12 and a few late rd gems, but any trend should be mentioned.

Rising ADP
Adam Wainwright moves up from 64.0 to 57.9
Jon Lester moves up from 64.5 to 58.9
Josh Johnson moves up from 81.9 to 75.3
Tommy Hanson moves up from 86.1 to 79.9
Josh Beckett moves up from 90.3 to 85.5
Yovani Gallardo moves up from 100.3 to 91.5
Clayton Kershaw moves up from 111.2 to 103.6
Ubaldo Jimenez moves up from 113.8 to 104.7
Chad Billingsley moves up from 126.0 to 121.9
Jair Jurrjens moves up from 134.0 to 128.0
Jered Weaver moves up from 139.5 to 134.5
Brandon Webb jumps from 141.0 to 129.4
Wandy Rodriguez jumps from 154.3 to 129.5
Edwin Jackson moves up from 168.9 to 164.8
Neftali Feliz moves up from 175.4 to 168.6
Daisuke Matsuzaka moves up from 196.2 191.3
Jorge de la Rosa jumps from 202.8 to 192.6
Brett Anderson sky rockets from 243.0 to 198.7
JA Happ moves up from 245.0 to 233.3
Francisco Liriano sky rockets from 314.6 to 278.0
Ben Sheets sky rockets from 310.7 to 243.8

Falling ADP
Roy Oswalt drops from 151.4 to 156.9
John Danks drops from 162.2 to 166.2
Gavin Floyd drops from 187.1 to 191.4
Joba Chamberlain drops from 203.7 to 207.5
Ervin Santana drops from 229.6 to 238.2
Joe Saunders falls from 260.9 to 276.7
Hiroki Kuroda falls from 272.0 to 283.7
Aaron Cook drops from 275.3 to 290.4
Aroldis Chapman drops from 287.0 to 294.5
Barry Zito falls from 310.5 to 318.3
Mark Buerhle falls from 237.0 to 251.3
Pedro Martinez falls from 311.6 to 326.0
Aaron Harang falls from 311.9 to 317.3

Million Dollar Thoughts:
I'm not surprised by the rising movement of Jon Lester, Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson, Josh Beckett, Clayton Kershaw, Ubaldo Jimenez, Wandy Rodriguez or Brett Anderson. I will be targeting this group of pitchers for my SP1 & SP2. I am surprised by the rising trends of Jair Jurrjens and Edwin Jackson. Those guys are due for regression, I guess I was wrong thinking everyone and they mama knew this. Neftali Feliz? I didn't know people covet middle relievers. He did post excellent numbers, but he wont repeat those and it won't even be close. Dice K, Jorge de la Rosa, Liriano and Sheets make excellent late rd fliers. If Liriano posts numbers in Spring Training like he did in the Dominican league, watch out.

Roy Oswalt isn't dead yet, but his k/9 isn't anything to get excited about. I am surprised by Gavin Floyd's drop in ADP. I guarantee he will be on a few of my teams. Now that Joba was basically dubbed the Yanks fifth starter, I'd expect his ADP to rise a little bit in the next few months. I don't know why anyone would want Joe Saunders on their team. Kuroda looks like a decent option, not sure where the anti-Hikroki movements are coming from. It sounds like Aroldis is making improvements with his curveball so when more people hear about that, I would expect his ADP to rise a bit. The Aroldis hype was at an all time high when I recorded the first ADP numbers so the drop was expected when Cincy said he would start in the minors. Aaron Harang is a decent option, I might draft him in a deep league. Maybe even the Zito... maybe... as long as he doesn't play his guitar in my clubhouse. no comments

This is about Brett Anderson, the soon to be most popular sleeper of all time. He will be on every single sleeper list posted on the internet. His current MDC ADP is 207, it was 243 about 2 weeks ago. People are catching on and it's going to get worse. I am guessing his ADP will be closer to 150-160 as we near the season and he'll go anywhere from pick 130-140 in more competitive leagues. So the question is, how soon is too soon to take everyones favorite sleeper?

For me, I have to project his 2010 season, rank him among his fellow SP and figure it out from there. His 2009 line and peripheral numbers were nice, even after a slow start:

175.1 IP, 11 wins, 4.06 ERA, 3.61 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, 150 Ks, 7.7 k/9, 2.31 bb/9, 1.49 GB/FB

March/April: 5.01 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.40 k/9
May: 6.38 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 4.88 k/9
June thru September: 3.33 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.7 k/9

He showed great control in the minors and even when he struggled out of the gate for the A's, his bb rate was still nice (3.09 & 2.63). He has an excellent slider (22 runs above average) and he throws it often (33%). Between the k/9, bb/9 and gb/fb I really can't find a reason to not fall in love with this guy. So while I try to calm the inner fan boy in me, this is my 2010 projection for Mr. Anderson.

190 IP, 14 wins, 3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 175 Ks

This is a rational projection and does not factor in improvement from the 22 year old. I have him ranked before Chad Billingsley and Matt Garza who go around pick 126. This is my cut off point for how soon is too soon. Let's say pick between picks 120-125. I wouldn't want to go any earlier than that. In a competitive league, once the Gallardo, Hamels, Kershaw, Nolasco, Ubaldo, Wandy train leaves the station, it may be time to dial up Brett's number if you want him. no comments

talking ADP for hitters. standard leagues, nothing too deep. ADPs are from MockDraftCentral

Catcher: I rarely draft a catcher early in a draft, but if I did, I think would go after Brian McCann. You can get Mauer-esque numbers 30 picks after Joe goes... Mike Napoli, Miguel Montero, Geovany Soto, Doumit are nice options and of course the predictable AJP rounds off the top 12. Salty's shoulder is recovering well, but I don't like to mess around with shoulder problems. The deep league two catcher set ups are going to be very interesting.

First Base: Deep position, a party of five and a bunch of fall back options. It'd be hard for me to take Votto over Adrian Gonzalez, there is no way Votto hits 40 HR. Plus, if Adrian gets traded he will be going to a better hitters park, no matter what. The trade will happen... maybe not this season tho. Morneau will outproduce Votto too, if he can stay healthy. Back problems suck. Pena is recovering well from his finger surgery and should hit 40 HR. Billy Butler is overrated at his 89 ADP. I can get the same stats from James Loney, who goes at 247. Adam Laroche (270) will provide more value than Butler. Todd Helton (209) will give him a run for his money too.

Second Base: Zobrist (60) and Beckham (94) are good options if you don't land Utley, Kinsler, Pedroia, Phillips, Roberts or Cano. I'm not paying for Aaron Hill (46). Will avoid Dan Uggla (85) if I can. Rickie Weeks (201) is interesting, assuming you have an adequate replacement player available for the inevitable wrist injury.

Shortstop: Not as thin as past years. Jeter may be the one to pursue, you can get ARod's little buddy at a decent price (51) and he will post similar numbers to what you'll get from Tulo. Zobrist again, even tho he'll see some regression in his AVG (I'm projecting .270). Alexei Ramirez (108) and Yunel Escobar (156) are good values. Cheaper options: Alcides Escobar, Elvis Andrus, Erick Aybar. Raphael Furcal at 131 is a bad investment.

Third Base: Thin position, especially if someone uses Reynolds, Youkilis or Sandoval at 1B. If you don't land one of the top 8 players, you could be screwed. You'll need to get some power at 2nd or SS if you want to play Figgins at the hot corner. Michael Young is decent, I guess. Chipper is too busy walking off an injury. Beltre is a nice rebound option and his 191 ADP is choice. Maybe Alex Gordon (235) puts it together. Brandon Wood (334)? How about Troy Glaus (333)? Scott Rolen (330) in Cincy? Just keep Casey McGehee (221) away from me.

Outfield: Why did BFun have to rank Justin Upton that high? dirty. I try not to draft OF too early if we're using 3 of em, deeper leagues with 5 OF are different. Granderson will be a slightly cheaper version of Werth. Bobby Abreu (77) is consistent and underrated. Jason Bay and his 25 ADP will not be on any of my teams. I'll get his stats from Nelson Cruz (70), Shin-Shoo Choo (73) or Raul Ibanez (92). Adam Lind (43) is a solid hitter, but overrated. I think Hunter Pence (89) is a better option than Hamilton (51), Soriano (71) or BJ Upton (60). I like Hunter (97), Mclouth (89), Quentin (103), Bruce (124), Span (126). Beltran can Suck It after what he did to my NL only team last year. Vernon Wells comeback anyone? Why draft Michael Bourn at pick 66 when you can have Nyjer Morgan (125), Rajai Davis (162), Julio Borbon (211) or Drew Stubbs (315)? It pains me to say it, but I think Jason Kubel will regress and not be worth his sticker price. Nolan Reimold is a nice cheap option (222). no comments

this is an odd newsbreaker from Fanball....

"Jose Arredondo has signed a minor league deal with the Reds, according to the Orange County Register.

Our View: Arredondo was supposed to undergo Tommy John elbow surgery, but it is uncertain if he actually did. He was also reportedly stabbed in a Dominican carwash in mid-December. He had great stuff when healthy, but his status for 2010 is in question."

just another reason to go to the bikini car wash, the worst that's happened to me there is a good old mace spraying no comments

I hate Jair Jurrjens - hate him.
I despise him.
Why?
Why? I'll tell you why...
Let me tell it ..
No, you can't tell it ..
You always tell it ..
All right, tell it.
Ja ja ja - just tell it

this is the very early bird special, a preliminary look at the top 100 SP. It's prolly more than 100 if I actually counted em... things will change as the season nears. Hopefully I didn't leave anyone out. They are split into groups of 16: easier than numbering em and it lets me know where I'll be sitting during the 16 team Indie Blog League draft. The number is the ADP from MDC on Jan 7th. If your name is Paul Bourdett or Amak-15, you do not have permission to read below, stop now. Tresspassers will be faked out with a phony list of SP rankings later.

12.5 Tim Lincecum
27.7 Zack Greinke
34.4 Roy Halladay
37.1 Dan Haren
29.2 Felix Hernandez
45.9 Justin Verlander
64.5 Jon Lester
28.1 CC Sabathia
81.9 Josh Johnson
73.4 Chris Carpenter
64.0 Adam Wainwright
102.7 Cole Hamels
90.3 Josh Beckett
60.4 Javier Vazquez
40.0 Johan Santana
52.0 Cliff Lee

113.8 Ubaldo Jimenez
86.1 Tommy Hanson
89.5 Matt Cain
81.9 Jake Peavy
100.3 Yovani Gallardo
108.7 Ricky Nolasco
154.3 Wandy Rodriguez
243.0 Brett Anderson
111.2 Clayton Kershaw
126.0 Chad Billingsley
116.3 John Lackey
127.2 James Shields
139.5 Jered Weaver
126.4 Matt Garza
141.0 Brandon Webb
187.1 Gavin Floyd

157.2 Scott Baker
223.1 Kevin Slowey
210.6 Rich Harden
147.8 Max Scherzer
151.4 Roy Oswalt
172.4 Ryan Dempster
162.2 John Danks
126.7 AJ Burnett
134.0 Jair Jurrens
168.9 Edwin Jackson
169.5 Carlos Zambrano
177.3 David Price
272.0 Hiroki Kuroda
152.4 Ted Lilly
196.2 Daisuke Matsuzaka
328.8 Shaun Marcum

334.1 Marc Rzepczynski
186.3 Randy Wolf
231.1 Johnny Cueto
200.5 Clay Buchholz
311.9 Aaron Harang
208.0 Tim Hudson
314.6 Francisco Liriano
202.8 Jorge de la Rosa
329.6 Derek Holland
296.1 Stephen Strasburg
176.1 Scott Kazmir
327.1 Brian Matusz
208.6 Rick Porcello
323.0 Matt Latos
323.2 Madison Bumgarner
333.0 John Maine

237.0 Mark Buerhle
245.0 JA Happ
297.5 Joe Blanton
229.6 Ervin Santana
225.4 Jeff Niemann
278.9 Joel Pineiro
229.7 Scott Feldman
283.2 Kevin Correia
328.1 Brett Myers
241.0 Jonathan Sanchez
334.8 Carl Pavano
324.2 Brad Penny
311.6 Pedro Martinez
290.2 Homer Bailey
327.1 Randy Wells
310.5 Barry Zito

282.4 Gil Meche
210.4 Andy Pettite
332.6 Brad Bergesen
333.2 Chris Tillman
328.8 Nick Blackburn
318.5 Derek Lowe
333.8 Kenshin Kawakami
330.3 Clayton Richard
333.5 Jason Hammel
319.5 Bronson Arroyo
331.1 Kevin Millwood
597.7 Charlie Morton
333.7 Paul Maholm
378.4 Kyle Lohse
543.9 Jake Westbrook
421.9 Dave Bush

333.6 Paul Ohlendorf
331.8 Trevor Cahill
260.9 Joe Saunders
324.1 Zack Duke
275.3 Aaron Cook
331.6 Jason Marquis
333.0 Tommy Hunter
NA Colby Lewis
350.8 Anibal Sanchez
474.6 Jeremy Bonderman
443.6 Gio Gonzalez
327.6 Jeremy Guthrie
332.6 Vicente Padilla
440.5 Brian Bannister
382.6 Yusmeiro Petit
450.8 Brandon McCarthy

636.9 Jake Arrieta
326.1 Chris Young
497.4 Manny Parra
326.1 Chris Young
429.1 Fausto Carmona
402.2 Armando Galarraga
332.8 Mike Pelfrey
328.8 Doug Davis
428.1 Andrew Miller
389.8 Oliver Perez
330.4 Micah Owings
428.1 Ian Snell


Not Included for various reasons: plenty of waiting/work to do

224.3 Erik Bedard
334.6 Dustin McGowan
418.8 Chien-Ming Wang
330.1 Edinson Volquez

310.7 Ben Sheets
332.6 John Smoltz
319.1 Jarrod Washburn
355.7 Jon Garland

175.4 Neftali Feliz
203.7 Joba Chamberlain
323.0 Philip Hughes
326.2 Justin Duchscherer
493.3 Kelvim Escobar
333.6 Koji Uehara
442.6 Sean Marshall
330.6 Franklin Morales
NA Robinson Tejeda
331.1 Junichi Tazawa
436.4 Glen Perkins
560.4 Brian Duensing

463.2 Michael Bowden
473.6 Brett Cecil
531.5 Andy Sonnanstine
589.4 Jesse Carlson
627.6 Dana Eveland no comments

I always wondered why the computer would select Ubaldo Jimenez in the first round of a dynasty draft in my Xbox 360 MLB2k8 game. Now I know, he is the chosen one. Ubaldo may very well be the first Colorado pitcher to be coveted in fantasy drafts since the 2005 Jeff Francis Fan Club Fantasy Baseball League. Coors Field, meet your match:

Age 26: Ubaldo is entering his 3rd full season in Colorado's rotation
1.88 GB/FB: all these groundballs and sinking action on pitches helps limit HR
8.17 K/9: the K rate is rising and there's room for improvement

Ubaldo's fastball, slider and changeup showed significant improvement in 2009. As his slider is getting better, he is using it more often. Usage jumped from 12.1% to 17.8% and it wouldnt surprise me to see it make a similar jump to 20-22% this season. That would increase his O-Swing% to a more K friendly rate.

Ubaldo's command is improving. He dropped his ugly 4.67 BB/9 to a workable 3.51 BB/9. Through 15 starts in 2007 Ubaldo sported a 4.06 BB/9 and that is what CHONE projects for him this season. Bill James is less hopeful: 4.37 BB/9. While these guys may be using Screech Powers' robot Kevin for their projections, I have Virgil doing dirty work. Tell me you dont expect Ubaldo's BB/9 to improve in 2010 after looking at his monthly splits. With improved control comes a better F-Strike%, so if he could get his 55.8% F-Strike% closer to league average (59%) it would would help his K rate.


8.05 BB/9 March/April
1.99 BB/9 May
2.89 BB/9 June
3.90 BB/9 July
2.96 BB/9 August
3.93 BB/9 September/October

Ubaldo has me buzzed up and I am pushing him up my SP ranks... how far is the mystery, which I choose not to reveal. Let's just say that I'm accepting prop bets, I'll take Ubaldo over Tommy Hanson. If you would like to see Kevin the robot in action, click here.

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Johan Santana carries a lot of name brand value, even after bone chips in his elbow required surgery in August and cut his season short. MockDraftCentral has him going at pick 41 between Dan Haren and Justin Verlander, which is just crazy in my not-so-humble opinion. Basically, Johan has been in decline since he peaked in 2004. While it has been very productive decline, a decline it is and this ride has been going on for five years and ended in injury.

Johan's fastball was averaging 90.5 mph last season, since 2006 it has fallen from 93.1 to 91.7 to 91.2 to 90.5 mph. Even before the surgery, you could have expected a sub 90 mph fastball for 2010. Even with the velocity dropping, it still remains a positive valued pitch. The problem last season was that his Change Up lost a lot of value, falling from a superb 23.7 to an above average 2.9

Johan's K/9 is also declining. Once a mighty 10.46 k/9, his punch out rate has fallen to 7.88 k/9. If the trend continues, we're prolly looking at a 7.5-7.75 K/9, unless the elbow speeds up the deterioration.

Johan's BABIP and xFIP are steadily rising. These two stats, which help forecast WHIP and ERA, are on a predictable decline. Again ignoring the elbow injury, you can already safely assume regression in WHIP and ERA. The pattern is obvious.

2004 BABIP .259 = WHIP 0.92
2005 BABIP .276 = WHIP 0.97
2006 BABIP .281 = WHIP 1.00
2007 BABIP .282 = WHIP 1.07
2008 BABIP .287 = WHIP 1.15
2009 BABIP .296 = WHIP 1.21

2004 xFIP 2.95 = ERA 2.61
2005 xFIP 3.10 = ERA 2.87
2006 xFIP 3.12 = ERA 2.77
2007 xFIP 3.43 = ERA 3.33
2008 xFIP 3.66 = ERA 2.53
2009 xFIP 4.13 = ERA 3.13

At the time of his injury, he was expected to fully recover and be ready for spring training, but that elbow did stop his five year run of at least 200 IP. Assuming he is healthy and doesnt suffer any setbacks, you should plan on seeing a decline from Johan. Maybe he stays healthy and gives you a 1.25 WHIP, is that what you want from a 41 ADP? I think people are not only taking a risk (elbow problems are not as serious as shoulder problems, but a season ending injury after a number of years of decline is something to keep an eye on) with his health, but also taking on a player in obvious decline. Name brand value isn't worth the price here. Johan will not be on any of my teams, unless he falls to the 80-90 range. no comments