I think someone might be trying to hustle me. Just when I was ready to invite Nick P to a league, I remembered the movie White Men Can't Jump. This guy is running around the Roto Arcade comment sections taking shots at and calling out MDS with his 39% Yahoo Profile

Playing in Y! leagues prior to this year just proves MDS is the fat kid in the kiddie pool. No auctions, no FAAB, just a no talent windbag polluting message boards. Clowns like this dude are everywhere.

Taking Y! leagues/profiles seriously is what makes you a no talent hack MDS. If you were'nt playing in Auction, FAAB, money leagues, you're a chump. Guess what? You're a chump. Keep trying to bully the slow kids for lunch money fatso - you got no currency in The Show. We'll see if you even have the stones to play in a big league now that Y! has increased their functionality.

Next thing I know, Nick P will be whispering stuff in my ear when I'm making bids during the draft. I won't be able to concentrate and make the necessary adjustments. Virgil will be mad cuz I won't be able to take him to Red Lobster. Now that I think about it, I heard they're making a movie about Nick P. Woody Harrelson will be playing Nick, but they decided to be more true to real life and casted Monique to play the role of his girlfriend. Gangsters are chasing Nick around town as he tries to hustle money from fantasy managers to pay off his gambling debts, Monique goes on Jeopardy, Nick sings her a song while strumming his guitar... next thing you know, Nick will be trying to be my co-manager in a big money league. Virgil ain't having that and Nick P ain't husting MDS.

or he isn't hustling me and he just really, really sucks. I'm siding with Occam's Razor here. no comments

Another Smackdown! blog post, another MDS/expert confrontation at Base-Heads.com. This time I take on Mark Strausberg from Roto Experts over Miguel Cabrera being labeled a 1st Rd bust. Miggy is my boy and I couldn't let that go unpunished. If you're not interested in a good confrontation, you should check it out simply for the fact that I linked to the greatest WWF moment in history. Youtube is great.

"... I had Virgil in his place... they were identical, identicallllllll!... the referee is paid off brotha, look at the hundred dollar bills falling out of his pocket!..."

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I will be avoiding David Wright as best I can this season. Why? Mainly b/c I had him on a team last year and I hated him, but there are other reasons too. Seriously tho, how does someone spend a late rd 1 - early rd 2 pick on a player they hated last season? He's not coming at much of a discount after failing to live up to the expectations every one had for him.

Issues: First and foremost, it's the home run total of 10. Ten! It's not good when Jason Bartlett hit more HR than your 1st Rd pick. He also knocked in 50 less runners, his RBI dropped from 124 to 72. Wright struck out more often, his K% jumped from 18.8% to 26.2%, but his AVG didnt fall off at all. Why? b/c his BABIP was inflated. While he usually has a high BABIP (career .350, from his nice LD%), you cannot expect him to repeat his .400 clip. If that K% stays at 26%, his AVG will drop below .300, that's a million dollar guarantee. The one thing that disturbs me most are his quotes after the Matt Cain bean ball incident, this is from Roto Wire:

"News: Wright, who went 0-for-4 in the Mets' 3-1 loss to Atlanta Tuesday, admitted last week that the the Matt Cain fastball, which struck him on the side of his batting helmet on August 5 and gave him a concussion, still is "in the back of his head" when he's at the plate, the NY Newsday reports.

Analysis: Wright feels himself flinching more than usual when pitches come inside, adding "I think it's just kind of instinctive that you see a ball coming up there that your first thought is to get out of the way rather than give it a split-second to see if it's a breaking ball or fastball. I think that will hopefully weed itself out and gradually go away where you feel comfortable that you can give it that split-second longer, see what it is and still trust yourself that you can get out of the way." Wright is now 18-for-77 with two home runs and 13 RBI in September, but those numbers are also propped up by his two-homer, six RBI day on September 12. For Wright to return to elite status, he needs to get back to being fearless at the plate, something that will hopefully occur before the 2010 season."

Reasons for Hope: Ok, his HR total will increase. He was very unlucky with his HR/FB%. The new ballpark doesn't help, but it alone cannot be the reason for a 10% drop in HR/FB%. In 2007/2008 he was rocking over 16%, in 2009 he posted a measley 6.9% HR/FB. That will not happen again. Also, getting Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay in the lineup should allow David to see better pitches. As for the RBI drop, it'll help having Jose Reyes back in the leadoff spot. I have doubts about his 26% k rate, his O-Swing% and O-Contact% were not too far off from his norms so a bounceback is likely.

MDS says: Personally, I believe he needs to stop waxing his forehead and bring on some caveman eyebrows if he wants to hit 30 HR again. Maybe the Mets should call up Mel Brooks and get the Dark Helmet if Wright wants to forget about the Matt Cain incident. In the end, I don't like paying full price for someone who disappointed, so someone else can have him. David Wright needs a lot of corrections to happen and get his confidence back for him to pay off for his owners. no comments

As I learn the nuances of auction drafts I've been reading up on some advice. I know some ppl designate a certain percent of their budget to top ranked players, but I'm not exactly sure what those numbers are. The mock auction team I posted earlier was not planned. I didn't set a chunk of money aside and say this is for these dudes and the rest is for them, I freestyled that shit. I did come across a little information regarding spending between hitters and pitchers from The Sherpa:

"Most experts more or less adhered to the rule of thumb about spending roughly $180 on hitters and $80 on pitchers."

The purpose of this blog post is to touch on what Behrens said about nominating players:

"Don't become predictable... if it's clear that you don't intend to buy any player you nominate, then, in all likelihood, you'll eventually get stuck with one of 'em."

Sure, you could get stuck with one of 'em later in the draft when players are going for $1, but you're not going to get stuck with the early to mid rd overrated players. Someone is gonna bid more than $1 on the following players. These are the guys I'm going to nominate in an attempt to get teams to spend money early. This way, they will be less likely to push me too far in a bidding war over underrated players who are going to break out, like Brett Anderson. Most of these nominees will be OF or SP as these positions are easier to fill with smaller bids. So without further ado...

the 2010 nominees for worst performance by a player in a supporting role are:

Joe Mauer
David Wright
Matt Holliday
Victor Martinez
Brandon Phillips
Aaron Hill
Jason Bay
Adam Lind
Dan Uggla
Andre Ethier
Josh Hamilton
Manny Ramirez
Michael Bourn
Chris Coghlan
Jason Kubel
Alfonso Soriano
Ryan Ludwick
David Ortiz
Carlos Beltran
Corey Hart

Chris Carpenter
Cliff Lee
Johan Santana
Jonathan Broxton
Mariano Rivera
Joe Nathan
Jonathan Papelbon
Jair Jurrjens
John Lackey
Edwin Jackson
Rick Porcello
Randy Wolf

If you get stuck with any of these guys for $1, it wouldn't be a problem. After these guys are scooped up, I will load up my nomination queue with players who I want at positions I need to fill. This is a good point to switch up your tactics, thus becoming less predictable. Let's be clear, I am not saying the above players will be complete busts, but I have doubts about their production compared to their prices. I will be grabbing a beer from the fridge during their 30 seconds in the spotlight. If you have a problem with me talking bad about any of these guys; that's cool, I need someone to drive their prices up. no comments

No, this isn't one of those cool insider industry mock auctions. I don't roll up a pack of cigarettes in my sleeve so no one invites me to those things. These are the results of a regular old Yahoo! mock auction. This time no one spent $200 on their favorite player, so I thought I could get away with posting my team. However, 6 ppl eventually left the draft and the computer controlled teams went SP crazy. They were easy to manipulate into bidding on bad players and spending their money early. This would not happen in a competitive league.

1. Álex Rodríguez (NYY - 3B) $40
2. Ryan Howard (Phi - 1B) $36
3. Miguel Cabrera (Det - 1B) $37
4. Carl Crawford (TB - OF) $30
5. Mark Reynolds (Ari - 1B,3B) $18
6. Jon Lester (Bos - SP) $22
7. Gavin Floyd (CWS - SP) $12
8. Brett Anderson (Oak - SP) $12
9. Carlos González (Col - OF) $9
10. Jay Bruce (Cin - OF) $8
11. Alexei Ramírez (CWS - SS) $8
12. Clint Barmes (Col - 2B,SS) $3
13. Carlos Zambrano (ChC - SP) $3
14. Mike Napoli (LAA - C) $2
15. Vladimir Guerrero (Tex - Util) $2
16. Brandon Webb (Ari - SP) $3
17. Chris Young (Ari - OF) $3
18. Ryan Franklin (StL - RP) $1
19. Leo Núñez (Fla - RP) $2
20. David Aardsma (Sea - RP) $2
21. Trevor Hoffman (Mil - RP) $1
22. Francisco Liriano (Min - SP,RP) $1
23. Frank Francisco (Tex - RP) $2

I want to point out that I did not bid on Chris Young. I lost connection and he was an unpleasant surprise when I was able to reload the draft application. I would have saved the money for closers, which I wouldn't have actually needed b/c (for some weird reason) I was able to get them at cheap prices in the end.

The Strategy: since this was a standard 12 team league, I wanted to buy some expensive players and fill out the rest of my positions with underrated players. I wouldn't try this is a deeper league; I would go for balance. Basically the whole draft, I was nominating expensive players I wanted no part of: especially OF, SP and then 1B/3B after I purchased my 4 big boppers.

The Players: After spending big on Aroid, Miggy, Howard and Crawford, I was able to get my grubby hands on some of my favs: Lester, Anderson, Floyd, Bruce and Gonzo. Then pick up some cheaper options like Alexei Ramirez, Napoli, Webb and Zambo. I'm not too fond of Barmes (he is likely 1 cold streak away from being subbed by Eric Young), but I was looking to save money somewhere at that point in the draft. I'm not huge on Vladi or Ryan Franklin, but for $3 combined... what the hell, sign me up. Liriano for $1 could have been my best purchase, I'm a homer tho so that's the way us Twins fans think.

Good draft, I likey. I'm not expecting this to ever happen in a good league tho. More auction tips at [Roto Arcade] no comments

Watch out ppl, Paul Bourdett is giving MDS a megaphone and encouraging me to start some beef with industry folk. It. Is. On.

Keep an eye on Base-Heads.com for the weekly blog post: Monday Night Smackdown, where I call out an expert on advice I don't like. Paul's description sums it up well:

"Here’s a brand new feature I’m really, really excited about. Each week, we’ll be traveling across the internet to take on the “experts”. Not because we hold a grudge against someone or we dislike anyone in the industry but because sometimes expert analysis is flawed (and often, it’s treated as gospel just because of the source). Whether it’s one of the big dogs at Yahoo!, ESPN, or CBS Sports, or even one of our friends at Rotoworld, Razzball, or RotoExperts, if their math is fuzzy and their analysis sketchy, we are going to call them out. Of course, we’ll also be fair. Each individual we challenge will be presented with the case against them and then given an opportunity to respond to the criticism (we fully expect that some won’t respond; we’ll just knock down their analysis and call them out as cowards!) Lastly, you’ll be given the chance to decide who came out on top via a poll at the end of each post. Sounds like fun, right? Even better, we’ve commissioned just the right person to take on the assignment. Believe me when I tell you that this guy’s been itching to rip someone’s analysis to shreds."

This week, Chris Carbonell (Roto Experts) and I square off inside the squared circle over Johan’s 2010 expected value and draft position. Be sure to check it out and make your voice heard. There is a poll and you actually get to post comments on his site. This is going to be fun. Our first venture into the series has us so excited, Paul released it on a Wednesday. no comments

and they screwed me!!! no Weekly Max IP option for custom H2H leagues

thanks to everyone who did email yahoo and ask for this, we'll get em next year.

Mock Auctions are up and running and since I've never done an auction draft, I had to test the system, explore the minor details and just get my feet wet...... and then Tim Lincecum went for $221. Some people's children. However, I did find out some useful info about myself...

- I have an itchy trigger finger
- I get jealous when ppl bid on 1st n 2nd rd players, I want em all
- Bidding solely to drive prices up doesn't always work
- Auction drafts take awhile and spending all your money early doesn't help anything

Practice makes perfect, do work son! no comments

When it comes to projecting K/9, I'm not going to bust out any scientific formulas here. I'm not that big of a sabre nerd. Frankly I think some ppl take it too far, trying to use mathematical equations on everyone. This just isn't possible, people are unique and situations vary too much to be doing this. I just busted out an uncommon amount of common sense using Fangraphs numbers. Basically I ask myself if a player's stats will improve, remain stable or decline.

When it comes to roto leagues, I prefer using k/9 rather than total Ks. It's just math. The things I look for when trying to project k/9 are O-Swing%, O-Contact%, F-Strike%, Pitch Values and Velocity, Pitch Type usage and control of the strike zone.

Rookies are a little different as their experience in MLB is limited so I don't have a lot of info to work with. Jumping levels year to year also complicates matters. You cannot simply extrapolate minor league numbers like Bill James seems to do. I'm beginning to wonder if that guy is an actual person or a robot similar to Deep Blue.

O-Swing%: making batters swing outside the zone is good. 2009 league avg: 25.1%
O-Contact%: the percentage of O-Swings that make contact, less is better. 2009 league avg: 61.8%
F-Strike%: first pitch strikes, creating a pitcher's count: 2009 league avg: 60.0%
Pitch Values: are the pitches getting better? worse?
Pitch Type Usage: I generally look for the pitches with movement, esp sliders
Control of the Strike Zone: bb/9, Zone %, F-Strike%
Other Factors: age, experience, team/league change, injury history, etc

I'll try to find a good example... how about the MDS endorsed Gavin Floyd

Through 2007-2008 (276.1 IP) Gavin's k/9 was 6.31, but in 2009 it jumped to 7.60. So what happened? He didn't use his slider much in limited time with the Phillies, but he began throwing it with the Sox and the usage has increased each year since (16.8%, 20.6%, 26.9%). The jump in slider usage has come at the expense of his fastball. This makes me happy. Not only that, but the value of the pitch is getting better. It's gone from a negative value (-2.2) and turned into a good pitch (7.5 runs above average). With increased slider usage comes a better O-Swing% and O-Contact%, resulting in more k/9. His O-Contact% dropped from 62.3% in 2008 down to 53.9% in 2009. This is a significant jump. Now while I wouldn't expect that number to be that low next season, it is important to remember that his slider usage and value is trending upward so I would expect something near 55-56%. Gavin's control of the strike zone also improved, slightly. His bb/9 dropped from 3.05 to 2.75, F-Strike% was a smidge better (55.4%, 59.9%, 60.0%), but his Zone% did drop from 51% in 2008 to 48.2% in 2009. The velocity on his fastball, slider, curve n changeup did improve slightly to career highs. So what's this all mean? My brain cave is telling me Gavin has got it going on and I would expect his jump in k/9 to be real. His O-Contact% may rise, but not to a point where he would regress to 2008-2009 levels. I have him projected at 7.4 k/9, similar to Matt Cain.

Floyd is 27 years old and will be entering his 3rd full season in the Sox rotation, which generally seems to be the point where pitcher shows improved command. His pitches are getting better and he's using his slider more. I think his improved k/9 is sustainable. He isn't expensive and nobody seems to be talking him up. This is someone I want on my teams.

When you look at a decrease or increase in k/9, you gotta dig deep and figure out what happened. Did the pitcher change up his arsenal? Did he improve a certain pitch? Is the pitcher using his breaking pitches more/less often? Was his O-Contact% lucky or unlucky? Is he losing/gaining command of his pitches? Is he throwing first pitch strikes more/less often? You cannot use some sort of quantum physics equation here, figure out what's going on and use some common sense. no comments

Top 100 SP w/ projections for k/9, WHIP, ERA. Later, I'll do a follow up post for how I projected these numbers. Basically you can use this as a template for your rankings, adjust the projections to your liking (not advised, I'm almost perfect) and go from there. The first list was very raw and missing players. This list is far from done and I (likely) will not post another updated version. I want to point something out about these first... players are not ranked based solely off my projections. Wins, injury history and ADP help shape the ranks. I'd rank Floyd ahead of Baker, but their ADPs are so far apart, I just threw Floyd behind him cuz I wouldn't draft Gavin until some time after Scotty went. Use some common sense here.

I still have work to do on players with no projections, I'm either waiting for them to sign, news of the injury to come out, info about their role or I'm just not motivated to project a scrub's numbers. I almost feel guilty giving a dude a 1.50 WHIP lol. I'm not completely confident with my projections for rookie pitchers like Davis, Matusz, Holland, Porcello, Latos, Niemann, Bailey, Bergesen, Tillman, Richard and Cahill so feel free to tweak those at your own risk.

There are more than 100 here and they are split up by groups of 16 for personal reasons... the ADPs are from Jan 7th

12.5 Tim Lincecum 10.5--1.05--2.60
27.7 Zack Greinke 9.5--1.10--3.15
34.4 Roy Halladay 8.1--1.10--3.00
37.1 Dan Haren 8.6--1.10--3.15
45.9 Justin Verlander 9.5--1.15--3.40
64.5 Jon Lester 9.2--1.15--3.15
28.1 CC Sabathia 7.8--1.20--3.45
29.2 Felix Hernandez 8.2--1.20--3.40
90.3 Josh Beckett 8.5--1.15--3.60
60.4 Javier Vazquez 8.5--1.20--3.80
64.0 Adam Wainwright 8.1--1.20--3.35
81.9 Josh Johnson 8.2--1.20--3.30
100.3 Yovani Gallardo 9.9--1.25--3.55
102.7 Cole Hamels 8.0--1.15--3.70
73.4 Chris Carpenter 6.9--1.10--3.35
111.2 Clayton Kershaw 9.7--1.25--3.85

108.7 Ricky Nolasco 8.8--1.20--3.60
113.8 Ubaldo Jimenez 8.2--1.20--3.20
86.1 Tommy Hanson 8.4--1.20--3.75
154.3 Wandy Rodriguez 8.5--1.25--3.50
52.0 Cliff Lee 6.9--1.10--3.55
81.9 Jake Peavy 8.5--1.25--3.65
40.0 Johan Santana 7.8--1.25--3.85
89.5 Matt Cain 7.3--1.20--3.50
243.0 Brett Anderson 8.3--1.25--3.60
126.0 Chad Billingsley 8.5--1.30--3.95
126.4 Matt Garza 7.8--1.30--3.85
127.2 James Shields 6.9--1.20--3.80
139.5 Jered Weaver 7.5--1.25--4.00
157.2 Scott Baker 7.2--1.20--4.20
187.1 Gavin Floyd 7.4--1.25--3.80
223.1 Kevin Slowey 7.2--1.20--4.20

141.0 Brandon Webb 7.2--1.20--3.40
126.7 AJ Burnett 8.7--1.35--4.20
147.8 Max Scherzer 9.2--1.35--4.20
172.4 Ryan Dempster 7.7--1.30--3.75
116.3 John Lackey 7.0--1.30--4.00
210.6 Rich Harden 9.6--1.30--4.00
151.4 Roy Oswalt 6.8--1.25--3.75
177.3 David Price 7.9--1.30--4.20
169.5 Carlos Zambrano 7.6--1.30--3.95
162.2 John Danks 7.0--1.30--4.20
152.4 Ted Lilly 7.7--1.20--4.15
314.6 Francisco Liriano 8.3--1.35--4.35
310.7 Ben Sheets 7.1--1.25--3.95
176.1 Scott Kazmir 8.7--1.35--4.15
202.8 Jorge de la Rosa 9.1--1.35--4.00
272.0 Hiroki Kuroda 6.5--1.20--3.70

311.9 Aaron Harang 7.6--1.30--4.00
328.8 Shaun Marcum 7.3--1.25--4.25
196.2 Daisuke Matsuzaka 8.4--1.35--4.50
200.5 Clay Buchholz 7.5--1.35--4.00
134.0 Jair Jurrens 6.5--1.33--3.82
334.1 Marc Rzepczynski 8.8--1.40--4.00
186.3 Randy Wolf 7.1--1.30--4.30
203.7 Joba Chamberlain 8.0--1.40--4.40
231.1 Johnny Cueto 7.5--1.35--4.40
241.0 Jonathan Sanchez 9.7--1.40--4.20
168.9 Edwin Jackson 6.9--1.35--4.30
224.3 Erik Bedard 7.9--1.30--3.90
208.0 Tim Hudson 6.3--1.28--3.65
237.0 Mark Buerhle 4.7--1.30--4.40
Wade Davis 8.0--1.35--4.15
327.1 Brian Matusz 7.6--1.35--4.40

329.6 Derek Holland 7.2--1.40--4.35
333.0 John Maine 7.4--1.35--4.40
296.1 Stephen Strasburg
323.2 Madison Bumgarner
245.0 JA Happ 7.0--1.30--4.50
290.2 Homer Bailey 7.0--1.35--4.40
310.5 Barry Zito 7.0--1.35--4.40
229.6 Ervin Santana 6.9--1.35--4.45
225.4 Jeff Niemann 6.5--1.35--4.50
297.5 Joe Blanton 6.5--1.35--4.50
328.1 Brett Myers 7.3--1.35--4.40
334.8 Carl Pavano 6.2--1.30--4.00
283.2 Kevin Correia 6.5--1.35--4.20
323.0 Matt Latos 6.9--1.35--4.50
327.1 Randy Wells 6.0--1.35--4.25
208.6 Rick Porcello 5.5--1.35--4.30

282.4 Gil Meche 7.0--1.35--4.50
324.2 Brad Penny 5.7--1.40--4.50
332.6 Brad Bergesen 5.1--1.30--4.20
229.7 Scott Feldman 5.4--1.35--4.50
278.9 Joel Pineiro 4.8--1.30--4.25
210.4 Andy Pettitte 6.8--1.40--4.35
318.5 Derek Lowe 5.6--1.35--4.15
330.3 Clayton Richard 6.9--1.40--4.15
319.5 Bronson Arroyo 6.0--1.35--4.50
333.8 Kenshin Kawakami 6.5--1.35--4.45
378.4 Kyle Lohse 5.7--1.35--4.45
Colby Lewis 6.9--1.37--4.60
Bud Norris 8.2--1.45--4.40
Felipe Paulino 8.0--1.45--4.45
331.8 Trevor Cahill 5.6--1.35--4.55
333.2 Chris Tillman 6.4--1.40--5.00

328.8 Nick Blackburn 4.3--1.35--4.50
333.5 Jason Hammel 6.3--1.45--4.50
Aroldis Chapman
333.7 Paul Maholm 5.7--1.40--4.25
597.7 Charlie Morton 5.8--1.40--4.50
331.1 Kevin Millwood 5.6--1.45--4.75
543.9 Jake Westbrook 5.0--1.40--4.30
421.9 Dave Bush 6.7--1.35--4.70
333.6 Paul Ohlendorf 5.5--1.40--4.60
260.9 Joe Saunders 5.0--1.40--4.55
324.1 Zack Duke 4.5--1.40--4.30
275.3 Aaron Cook 4.2--1.40--4.15
331.6 Jason Marquis
333.0 Tommy Hunter
350.8 Anibal Sanchez
474.6 Jeremy Bonderman

443.6 Gio Gonzalez
327.6 Jeremy Guthrie
332.6 Vicente Padilla
355.7 Jon Garland
440.5 Brian Bannister
382.6 Yusmeiro Petit
450.8 Brandon McCarthy
326.1 Chris Young
428.1 Ian Snell
636.9 Jake Arrieta
497.4 Manny Parra
429.1 Fausto Carmona
402.2 Armando Galarraga
332.8 Mike Pelfrey
328.8 Doug Davis
319.1 Jarrod Washburn
428.1 Andrew Miller
389.8 Oliver Perez
473.6 Brett Cecil 6.5--1.50--4.75
330.4 Micah Owings

334.6 Dustin McGowan
418.8 Chien-Ming Wang
332.6 John Smoltz
311.6 Pedro Martinez

323.0 Philip Hughes
326.2 Justin Duchscherer
493.3 Kelvim Escobar
Robinson Tejeda
560.4 Brian Duensing

Luke Hochevar
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Ricky Romero
Brandon Morrow
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It's been close to a month since I recorded the ADP for SP from MDC. Let's see who is trending. I am mainly concerned about the juicy pitchers going around Rd 7 thru 12 and a few late rd gems, but any trend should be mentioned.

Rising ADP
Adam Wainwright moves up from 64.0 to 57.9
Jon Lester moves up from 64.5 to 58.9
Josh Johnson moves up from 81.9 to 75.3
Tommy Hanson moves up from 86.1 to 79.9
Josh Beckett moves up from 90.3 to 85.5
Yovani Gallardo moves up from 100.3 to 91.5
Clayton Kershaw moves up from 111.2 to 103.6
Ubaldo Jimenez moves up from 113.8 to 104.7
Chad Billingsley moves up from 126.0 to 121.9
Jair Jurrjens moves up from 134.0 to 128.0
Jered Weaver moves up from 139.5 to 134.5
Brandon Webb jumps from 141.0 to 129.4
Wandy Rodriguez jumps from 154.3 to 129.5
Edwin Jackson moves up from 168.9 to 164.8
Neftali Feliz moves up from 175.4 to 168.6
Daisuke Matsuzaka moves up from 196.2 191.3
Jorge de la Rosa jumps from 202.8 to 192.6
Brett Anderson sky rockets from 243.0 to 198.7
JA Happ moves up from 245.0 to 233.3
Francisco Liriano sky rockets from 314.6 to 278.0
Ben Sheets sky rockets from 310.7 to 243.8

Falling ADP
Roy Oswalt drops from 151.4 to 156.9
John Danks drops from 162.2 to 166.2
Gavin Floyd drops from 187.1 to 191.4
Joba Chamberlain drops from 203.7 to 207.5
Ervin Santana drops from 229.6 to 238.2
Joe Saunders falls from 260.9 to 276.7
Hiroki Kuroda falls from 272.0 to 283.7
Aaron Cook drops from 275.3 to 290.4
Aroldis Chapman drops from 287.0 to 294.5
Barry Zito falls from 310.5 to 318.3
Mark Buerhle falls from 237.0 to 251.3
Pedro Martinez falls from 311.6 to 326.0
Aaron Harang falls from 311.9 to 317.3

Million Dollar Thoughts:
I'm not surprised by the rising movement of Jon Lester, Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson, Josh Beckett, Clayton Kershaw, Ubaldo Jimenez, Wandy Rodriguez or Brett Anderson. I will be targeting this group of pitchers for my SP1 & SP2. I am surprised by the rising trends of Jair Jurrjens and Edwin Jackson. Those guys are due for regression, I guess I was wrong thinking everyone and they mama knew this. Neftali Feliz? I didn't know people covet middle relievers. He did post excellent numbers, but he wont repeat those and it won't even be close. Dice K, Jorge de la Rosa, Liriano and Sheets make excellent late rd fliers. If Liriano posts numbers in Spring Training like he did in the Dominican league, watch out.

Roy Oswalt isn't dead yet, but his k/9 isn't anything to get excited about. I am surprised by Gavin Floyd's drop in ADP. I guarantee he will be on a few of my teams. Now that Joba was basically dubbed the Yanks fifth starter, I'd expect his ADP to rise a little bit in the next few months. I don't know why anyone would want Joe Saunders on their team. Kuroda looks like a decent option, not sure where the anti-Hikroki movements are coming from. It sounds like Aroldis is making improvements with his curveball so when more people hear about that, I would expect his ADP to rise a bit. The Aroldis hype was at an all time high when I recorded the first ADP numbers so the drop was expected when Cincy said he would start in the minors. Aaron Harang is a decent option, I might draft him in a deep league. Maybe even the Zito... maybe... as long as he doesn't play his guitar in my clubhouse. no comments