Million Dollar Question: how do you feel about Rick Porcello?

2009 Yahoo Rank: 244
2010 Yahoo O-Rank: 140

That is a big jump for someone who didn't miss any time with an injury. I understand he is/was a big time prospect and the Tigers were limiting his usage last season, but damn Gina, how ya gonna move him up over 100 spots on us? I thought Yahoo left the hype propaganda up to Behrens and Evans. Don't worry Porcello enthusiasts, his MDC ADP is currently sitting at 206.

Scouting Report from SaberScouting:

Physical Description - Long limbs, wide chest, square shoulders, average build throughout, solid bulk in legs, room to add solid build, up to 15 lbs of muscle. Well-proportioned, prototypical pitcher’s body. Resembles Justin Verlander or Roy Halladay.

Fastball - Ranged from 90-94 with movement and control all night, and everyone in the building knew he had 96-97 in his back pocket and he never brought it out. That alone was the most impressive thing about him. He was darting sinkers up to 94 right where he wanted them and varied the sink and arm-side run from pitch-to-pitch. Sat 91-93 with above-average life, movement, and control. Beyond that, he didn’t even rely on the fastball and just throw it exclusively. For a 19-year-old, that’s almost unfair. But there’s more…

Curveball - Ranged from 71-74; this was his signature hammer in high school and he threw less than 5 tonight. It had excellent depth, spin, and 12-to-6 tilt but lacked late bite. You give him a pass on that because everything else was so good and he only threw a few and didn’t have feel for it yet. Not sure if he shied away from it due to preference, mandate, or lack of feel, but I can put a future 60 on it, reports out of HS said it could easily be north of that. I’m sure I’ll get a better look in future starts.

Slider - Sat at 78-79; this was his weakest pitch but was the breaking pitch he used most often. It is a slurve that he primarily back-doored to left-handed hitters early in the count. It fills a need as a horizontal version of his curveball but it backed up in him a few times and also lacked bite but had flashed some late movement. It could’ve just been an off-day for his breaking stuff, but if he tightened that into a two-plane slider, it could be filthy.

Changeup - Ranged from 76-79; this was what really impressed everyone. It appears he just had a better feel for his change than his breaking stuff tonight and relied on it instead. He flashed a lot of 60s as a true swing-and-miss pitch to big league hitters. It is a mostly vertical drop due to his arm angle, but it’s late and it disappears. He mixed in a few on the corners with more horizontal break. Showed good command of it and used it as his out-pitch tonight. This pitch is why people love this guy. Without it, he’s just another tall guy with some velocity and command than can spin it, which is still rare, but not Chinese River Dolphin rare.

Mechanics - Sound mechanics. High 3/4 arm angle, clean and easy arm with average deception. Good torque in the motion and has an excellent decelerating finish with his arm on the follow through. Balance is good and doesn’t fall off at the end of his motion, in a good fielding position. Great leg drive. Late in the game (last clip in video) he lost his command and everything was up because he wasn’t tucking his chest and stayed high a few clicks too long. He battled and was at his pitch count and left after that inning. Motion is similar to John Smoltz.

Summary - You can see why teams loved him in the draft—he has all the elements you look for in a young pitcher. Tonight he showed a great projectable body, sound mechanics, great command for his age, great feel for a plus fastball, ability to spin a plus breaking ball, a knockout changeup, potential plus command, and the intelligence to know when and how to use these tools. Not sure what else you could want, really. There’s been tons of hype tossed on this guy by about any writer that can spell his name, but it doesn’t look like it’s gone to his head and he’s everything that was advertised.

According to Roto Wire, Jim Leyland will not restrict Porcello's pitch count this season, like he did the last. They also say he should have more pitches in his arsenal and he has the stuff to develop into a strikeout pitcher. I am a little skeptical of that last statement (at least for the 2010 season). His K Rate in Single A ball was only 5.18 K/9 (he was only 19 at the time tho).

Last season, Porcello threw his Fastball 77% of the time. That is a large number. He was able to generate a lot of ground balls (54%, 1.89 GB/FB) with his sinking action. He only threw his Slider 5.3%, his Curve 8.1% and Change-Up 9.5% of the time. This year, can we expect him to throw more Sliders? This would help him create more O-Swings with a lower O-Contact% (more Ks). More Curves and Change-Ups would also help the K Rate. When he does open up his arsenal, what kind of jump in Ks can we expect? It was an extremely weak 4.69 K/9 last season and during one month it was actually lower than his Walk Rate.

What Porcello really excelled at was his control. A 2.74 BB/9 is phenomenal for a rookie, especially at that age. he displayed exceptional control and it got better as the season came to a close: April (2.49), May (3.00), June (3.73), July (3.14), August (2.30), Sept/Oct (2.14). With such great control, Porcello should have posted a better F-Strike%. It was only 55.4% compared to the 58.2% league average. I fully expect his F-Strike% to increase, giving him more pitcher counts, thus generating more Strike Outs.

The kid will be 21 during the 2010 season; he is actually younger than Stephen Strasburg. He has already shown superb ability to induce ground balls and control the strike zone. When he pushes that K Rate up closer to the league average, he's going to be very special. He is definitely someone to trade for now in Dynasty/Keeper league before he improves, but what kind of K Rate can we expect this season? Assuming he opens up the aresenal, goes deeper into games and builds arm strength, he will definitely be worth the ADP. Is he worth that 140 O-Rank? Would you be willing to spend a Round 12 pick on Rick Porcello? I don't know if I'd go that early, but I do want him on at least 1 team. If I don't land him, I'll likely be forced to player hate. Like my homie The Situation says, if hatin' is your occupation, Porcello probably has a full time job for you.

Where are you drafting Porcello?online surveys no comments

Risers

Roy Halladay is no surprise. I was flipping thru the channels and ESPN had their Halladay Win total Over/Under at 45. A lot of ppl have Halladay as the #2 SP on their boards. Beckett, Yovani, Kershaw, Hamels, Ubaldo, Nolasco, Wandy do not surprise me either. Everyone wants some sort of action from these middle round SP2 who should ascend to SP1 status. I just wish Yovani wasn't so expensive. I think Josh Johnson and Josh Beckett are priced out of my range now. My homeboy Brett Anderson made a 50 pick jump in about a week. Damn Gina! I knew he would reach the 140s at some point, but that was quick. He may be pushing the 120s by Opening Day. I'm not too fond of Garza or Shields. While I'm not avoiding Garza; I just don't want to pay for any AL East pitchers not named Lester. Shields is just an average pitcher, no need to be reaching for him. Mad Max isn't faring too well in Spring Training (not that I would put too much stock in that) and his conversion to the AL could be bumpy. I'm not reaching for him either. I am a little surprised Scott Baker's ADP isn't higher. He is advertised by websites and is just as good as James Shields. Don't be afraid to draft him before his 151 ADP. I like Dempster at his ADP. Gavin is just as good as Scott Baker and going 15 picks later, sign me up. Liriano is climbing the charts fast and I wouldn't hesitate to draft him at the 233 mark.

Fallers

A 3 pick drop from Greinke isn't much to talk about, it's just a little surprising to see him going as the 4th SP now. He was the run away 2nd SP no more than 6 weeks ago. People would rather listen to Black Sabathia before Zack Attack? Get outta here. What happened to Jake Peavy's ADP? A 24 pick drop off? I understand the hesitation to draft him after the move from Petco to the AL and he has injury issues, but he does have a superb K Rate and decent control. I don't disagree with his ADP; I just don't understand the sudden hatred. Maybe it has something to do with Yahoo undervaluing him in their Mock Auction dollar values. John Lackey is an OK pitcher, but he isn't anything special and he's entering an environment that won't be as forgiving as the AL West. He won't be on any of my teams. Brandon Webb is likely to start the season on the DL and I don't mess with shoulder issues anymore. Peace Out B-Webb; expect that ADP to keep dropping. Jair Jurrjens; no!!!!! His shoulder is getting better people, keep reaching for him and I'll keep laughing. Edwin Jackson too; stay away from me please. Ted Lilly is getting the DL/ADP dropoff treament too. There seems to be some optimism for him to pitch before the season starts, but I'm not buying it. That 180 ADP isn't too shabby tho. If it gets worse, I might be interested. Randy Wolf is finally getting the respect (or no respect) that he deserves. Big time regression candidate. What's Happ-ening with J.A.'s ADP? Are people finally realizing he is due for regression? That was already priced into his ADP tho. I am a little surprised to see Strasburg drop and Aroldis Chapman go up. Huh? What the hell happened to Feldman? Only Kramer's bizarro world double could drop 70 picks in a matter of a week. Nobody needs to be messing with Kevin Millwood. no comments

Neighborhood Watch for SP. I needs to know where everyone is going, who is getting the hype treatment and how early I need to draft Ubaldo Jimenez, Brett Anderson, Gavin Floyd and Francisco Liriano if I want a piece. I gots to protect my property. So while I sip on my freshly squeezed lemon water, let's bust out the binocs and scope out the latest movers n shakers. I am comparing today's ADP (from MDC) to those from March 2nd.

ADP--Player--(March 2nd ADP)

24.35 Roy Halladay (31.90)
79.58 Josh Beckett (85.34)
68.85 Josh Johnson (75.31)
87.13 Yovani Gallardo (91.57)
92.97 Clayton Kershaw (103.55)
96.78 Cole Hamels (100.20)
100.58 Ubaldo Jimenez (104.84)
103.77 Ricky Nolasco (107.26)
120.96 Wandy Rodriguez (129.87)
121.14 Matt Garza (126.54)
126.07 James Shields (131.03)
144.09 Max Scherzer (147.46)
149.78 Brett Anderson (198.39)
151.00 Scott Baker (156.76)
162.60 John Danks (165.81)
167.15 Ryan Dempster (170.31)
186.47 Gavin Floyd (191.52)
206.55 Tim Hudson (209.49)
215.25 Ben Sheets (242.40)
221.19 Jeff Niemann (227.81)
223.11 Jonathan Sanchez (238.28)
226.03 Johnny Cueto (232.13)
229.23 Ervin Santana (238.95)
233.10 Francisco Liriano (274.33)
237.08 Mark Buehrle (251.77)
256.90 Aaron Harang (318.22)
258.50 Hiroki Kuroda (284.48)
260.61 Joe Saunders (277.60)
268.30 Aaron Cook (292.14)
270.60 Aroldis Chapman (294.26)
273.71 Kevin Correia (287.92)
273.75 Gil Meche (299.34)
285.01 Ricky Romero (303.19)
311.31 Wade Davis (320.90)

30.15 Zack Greinke (27.43)
31.52 Felix Hernandez (28.36)
83.12 Tommy Hanson (79.86)
90.74 Matt Cain (86.51)
107.06 Jake Peavy (83.57)
123.27 John Lackey (118.86)
140.96 Brandon Webb (129.51)
141.90 Jair Jurrjens (127.81)
170.09 Edwin Jackson (164.79)
180.52 Ted Lilly (154.24)
197.85 Daisuke Matsuzaka (191.27)
215.90 Rich Harden (212.11)
217.66 Randy Wolf (188.86)
267.47 J.A. Happ (233.74)
301.99 Stephen Strasburg (280.88)
314.70 Scott Feldman (233.00)
351.56 Derek Holland (332.96)
362.93 Kevin Millwood (328.87)

I will post some comments about these risers and fallers later tonight or tomorrow... no comments

Outfield is DEEEP. It's so deep I gave it 3 Es, that's how deep it is. It's a productive position, this is where bad fielders and blocked players go to get At Bats. Whether youre in a league with 3 or 5 OF, you can wait on the position. It's hard to turn down Kemp, Crawford and Sizemore, but it's often the best move. Braun may end up being ranked #2 after the season, but I'd still rather have Chase Utley, Alex Rodriguez and Evan Longoria. In auction leagues, it's easier to kick back and watch ppl spend big money on an easy-to-fill position.

Million Dollar Strategy: use mid and late draft picks to fill the OF. I also like to fill my UT spot with another OF. You're more likely to see an injury when you're fielding 3 to 5 OF compared to other positions, so having another OF at UT helps production and in-season management. You don't need to go into drafts with a few specific OF to target; having a large list of cheap, productive OF and drafting who falls to you should be the plan of action.

Crocodile Tiers (ADP from MDC)

OF 1: Not the best, but cheaper versions of the Brauns/Crawfords/Sizemores

Curtis Granderson: 35/15 a real possibility at pick 47
Nelson Cruz: cheaper and possibly better version of C-Grand at pick 65
Bobby Abreu: consistent production, virtual lock for .290/100/15/100/25 at pick 76

OF 2: Undervalued, Top 100 players

Raul Ibanez: 34 HR in 134 games last season, you can do worse at pick 94
Carlos Gonzalez: officially my fav OF option, .280/20/30 at pick 124
Hunter Pence: .280 AVG with 40 combined HR/SB at pick 86
Torii Hunter: .270/25/20 at pick 97
Nate McLouth: suspect .260 average coming, but cant argue with 25/25 at pick 89
Denard Span: .300/10/25 leadoff hitter is very underrated at pick 120
Jay Bruce: BABIP will correct itself, .275/30/5 coming at pick 121
Andrew McCutchen: .285/15/30 leadoff hitter at pick 88
Carlos Quentin: risk/reward type. If healthy, hes launching 35 bombs at pick 102

OF 3: (Michael) Bourn Identity Crisis

Nyjer Morgan: Ellsbury who? .300 AVG with 50 plus steals coming at pick 128
Julio Borbon: Nyjer Morgan with a .280 AVG, atop a better lineup at pick 152
Rajai Davis: Rickey Henderson endorsed, expect a .270 AVG with 50 SB at pick 159
Drew Stubbs: Rajai Davis with a touch of power (10 HR) at pick 305!
Juan Pierre: no HR/RBI, but a .290 AVG and 40 SB at pick 206
Dexter Fowler: doesn't hit RHP well, but should steal 35 bases at pick 284

OF 4-5: the Lost and Found Bin

Vernon Wells: don't hate, .275 AVG with 35 combined HR/SB cleanup hitter at pick 183
Chris Coghlan: he's hoping to steal more this year, I see a .285 AVG and 30 combined HR/SB at pick 196
Nolan Reimold: Achilles is something to keep an eye on, .275/25/10 possible at pick 195
Juan Rivera: quiet .280 AVG and 25 HR at pick 207
Corey Hart: two 20/20 seasons already, .270/20/15 expectations at pick 183
Franklin Gutierrez: Corey Hart-esque stats at pick 257
Conor Jackson: over the Valley Fever, .285/15/10 coming cheap at pick 317
Delmon Young: mucho talent, weight loss, .290 career AVG, maybe 25 combined HR/SB at pick 328
Magglio Ordonez: huge second half, .310 AVG 15 HR at pick 290
Jeff Francoeur: free swingers not very consistent, but .280 AVG with 25 combined HR/SB at pick 328
JD Drew: limping (injury, not gangsta) version of Juan Rivera at pick 286
Cody Ross: .270/25/5 at pick 296
Josh Willingham: Cody Ross with a .260 AVG at pick 323
Cameron Maybin: post hype alert, #2 in lineup, expect 10 HR, 15 SB at pick 270
Lastings Milledge: the forgotten one, .270 with 35 combined HR/SB at pick 330
Kyle Blanks: .265/25/85 at pick 297
Elijah Dukes: needs to keep the K% in check, but 20/20 possibility. not listed at MDC
Chris Young: HUGE Batting AVG risk, but this is a former 32/27 player at pick 316
Jose Guillen: unlucky BABIP last year, quiet .270/20 at pick 369
Matt Diaz: Jason Heyward has nothing on Ma... ok, but he is a .300 hitter capable of 25 combined HR/SB, not listed at MDC
Milton Bradley: Milton? in Safeco? hmmmmm, pick 323 tho... no? ok, lets move on
Luke Scott: low Batting AVG (.260), but cheap source of 25 HR at pick 328
Rick Ankiel: really? yep. ok, maybe not... not listed at MDC


Warning: this post was written while watching Along Came Polly and listening to Company Flow. I think I've really grown and matured while writing this. When I ask everyone, "What do you think guys?" and some dude asks me, "Are you that kid from Crocodile Tiers?". I'll refrain from bursting out and reply, "You're god damn right I am". no comments

Masterson of his own domain, Justin could prove to be a profitable pitcher this season. I wanted to draft him in the mock draft I did earlier today, but someone nabbed him (without my permission). In an Auction Draft, I may have made him pay for that move. According to MockDraftCentral, Justin Masterson doesn't even get drafted inside the top 105 SP. I have him ranked 67th in my SP Ranks, near Buehrle, Edwin Jackson and Holland, so he doesn't have to be drafted in standard leagues. I play deeper leagues tho, so...

What do I like about Justin Masterson? An above average K/9 (career 7.73 k/9) and the 1.81 GB/FB are nice. All those Strike Outs and Ground Balls (53.8%) help him get out of jams (LOB%) and limit HR damage. Masterson's Fastball clocked in at 92.3 MPH compared to 89.5 MPH in 2008, thats a big jump. His slider gained 3.1 MPH, averaging 84.2 MPH last season.

What do I dislike about Justin Masterson? He only throws two pitches, Lefties kill him and his Walk Rate isn't pretty. He throws a bad Change Up (-4.5 runs below avg) 3% of the time and his arm slot helps Left Handed Batters pick up the ball. Masterson sports a 1.73 WHIP vs LHB (1.03 vs RHB). He has walked 4.14 batters per nine in his two short seasons. This number got worse when he pitched for Cleveland last year (5.63 BB/9 in 10 Starts). He did walk 3.31 batters per nine in 6 Starts for Boston tho.

What's the Verdict? He's a sleeper, he might even be a Million Dollar Sleeper. He's cheap and can be tossed aside if he doesn't perform. He was improving his BB/9 until the Victor Martinez trade and even tho his BB/9 didn't improve on the surface level, his Zone% and F-Strike% did get better. He's young and has looked pretty good in Spring Training (3.1 IP, 6 K, 1 BB, 1 HBP) so far. He's got the Strike Outs, he's got the Ground Balls; he just needs to trim the Walk Rate a little and make an adjustment or add a pitch for Lefties and he's a bonafide top 40 pitcher.

Million Dollar Projection: 180 IP, 12 Wins, 159 K, 1.36 WHIP, 4.15 ERA

Justin Masterson Scouting Report

Big righty with an ideal pitcher's build. Dominated the Cape Cod League in 2005. Masterson has a three-fifths arm angle with a slinging-type motion. His arsenal includes a sinker, a slider, and a changeup. Of those pitches, his best is a phenomenal plus-sinker with an excellent heavy drop -- he can vary its speed from 84-94 mph, catching many hitters off balance. Also mixes in a very good slider that sits in the low 80s, and an improving 77-81 mph four-seam circle change. Uses his sinker predominantly as his out-pitch, but also can make use of his secondary pitches to get out of jams. Could stand to mix in his changeup a bit more. His mix of pitches results in a high groundball-to-flyball ratio, resulting in a lot of double plays. Very good command of the zone. Prepares well for every game and pitches with confidence on the mound. Good fielder with a quick and deceptive pick-off move. Strong character, Masterson is one of the most likable persons and teammates going. Converted to a starter in 2007 after coming out of the pen for Lowell in 2006, may still project as a reliever at this point depending on how well his changeup progresses. Needs to work on keeping his delivery consistent deep into games - he's struggled a bit the third time through lineups. Moved to the bullpen in mid-2008. If he stays in the pen, Masterson will need to keep the walks down and improve his ability to pitch out of the stretch. Ultimately, his ceiling is a #3 starter or a dominant set-up man.

I almost used this pic, but it looks like Justin needs the Bro (sorry Frank) no comments

I use K/9 often. It is what I first look at when projecting a pitcher's WHIP (which helps project ERA). K/9 is better for roto purposes than a flat total for Strikeouts, but I can't help but think K/PA would be better to guage a pitcher's K potential. I don't think K/PA will ever replace K/9, but I just want to toy around and see how a Jonathan Sanchez type pitcher compares to those with similar K/9, but better WHIP. Reason being, Jonathan Sanchez faces more batters, so he has more chances for strike outs.

Using Fangraphs, these are the leaders for K/9 (avg K/9 in 2009 was 6.99)

10.91 Rich Harden
10.42 Tim Lincecum
10.09 Justin Verlander
9.96 Jon Lester
9.89 Yovani Gallardo
9.77 Javier Vazquez
9.75 Jonathan Sanchez
9.74 Clayton Kershaw
9.50 Zack Greinke
9.49 Ricky Nolasco
9.39 Jorge de la Rosa
9.19 Max Scherzer
8.75 Dan Haren
8.48 AJ Burnett
8.45 Wandy Rodriguez
8.43 Josh Beckett
8.38 Matt Garza
8.22 Josh Johnson
8.21 Chad Billingsley
8.19 Adam Wainwright
8.18 Felix Hernandez
8.17 Ubaldo Jimenez
8.08 Carlos Zambrano

and how these players stack up using K per PA or Total Batters Faced

.288 Tim Lincecum
.281 Rich Harden
.274 Justin Verlander
.272 Javier Vazquez
.267 Jon Lester
.264 Zack Greinke
.264 Clayton Kershaw
.257 Yovani Gallardo
.249 Jonathan Sanchez
.248 Ricky Nolasco
.245 Dan Haren
.242 Jorge de la Rosa
.235 Max Scherzer
.227 Wandy Rodriguez
.225 Josh Beckett
.223 Josh Johnson
.222 Felix Hernandez
.220 Matt Garza
.219 Adam Wainwright
.218 AJ Burnett
.217 Chad Billingsley
.217 Ubaldo Jimenez
.207 Carlos Zambrano

Did I just revolutionize fantasy baseball? Yeah? Maybe? Hell no. This is just some food for thought. I don't need to tell anyone A.J. Burnett is overrated. Did I learn anything from this exercise? Nope, not really. no comments

I participated in a MDC Mock Draft open to readers at Roto Synthesis. It was a 15 team draft w/ expanded rosters. I was flying by the seats of my pants, not used to the MDC draft application. Not loading up my draft queue, I was left scrambling during some picks. I actually used up all my time and the computer auto selected Joe Nathan for me. I didn't want to draft Jorge Cantu that early, the RP were still deep and I just couldn't find anyone in time that made sense for my roster. I don't like snake drafts, auctions are the way to go.

All of these players are starters; C, MI, CI, OF, OF spots were added. No bench players. My only goal was to be strong in the Infield and fill my OF with medium priced, productive players. Selecting ARam with the 54th pick was a little painful, but 3B was going fast and I didn't want to be stuck fielding a Michael Young. Chipper Jones is an injury plagued bum, but he could provide some value at pick 187. The no bench rule was likely why he fell so far. Bartlett is a strong regression candidate, but the speed is real and at pick 142, the price was right. My SP is strong; can't believe Lincecum fell to pick 24, Lester and Ubaldo are a few of my favs. Catchers were gone early, being a two Catcher league. This was the first 2C draft I've done and I must say, I do not like how pricey these guys can be. At the same time you don't want to be the one choosing Rob Johnson or Lou Marson. In my fantasy world, AJP and Y.Molina would have fallen to me in Rd 17, but that wasn't even close to what happened. They went in Rd 11 and Rd 12, when I was taking Alex Rios and Trevor Hoffman.

I'm guessing the full results will be posted at Roto Synthesis in due time... til then, someone should let me know why everyone hates Lastings Milledge now adays. I almost took Jeff Francouer over him with my last pick, pondered Elijah Dukes too...

[Full Draft Results] no comments

It's been awhile since the last Smackdown. The epic beating put on AJ Mass (I should have done another after his Joel Pineiro debacle) has put many experts on notice. Al Melchoir from CBS avoided MDS. Erik Hahmann from Bloomberg Sports disappeared into the crowd when he heard my theme music. It may have taken the Roto Professor a full week to respond and Russell Martin hurt himself in the meantime, but at least he stepped up to defend his questionable stuff.

[Smackdown!] at Base-Heads.com

About that Russell Martin injury: per [Fanball]

Contrary to a report from earlier today, Russell Martin's strain in his lower abdominal/groin area is worse than originally thought and likely to keep him out the next four to six weeks, according to the L.A. Times' Dylan Hernandez.

Our View: Hernandez cites manager Joe Torre as his source, so we'll trust him on this one. This definitely puts a big detour in Martin's attempt to bounce back from last season's disappointing campaign, as there now appears to be little chance that he'll be on the field by Opening Day. Look for Brad Ausmus to take over the starting catcher duties until Martin heals, with A.J. Price assuming the backup role.

He should only miss two weeks as the season starts in about four weeks. This isn't horrible. He will still hit double digits in HR and SB while hitting .280; he's still a top 12 Catcher. This doesn't affect my position against Eric's opinion. I will drop Martin from the 5 spot in my Catcher ranks, but he's still Crocodile Tiered up with Montero, Posada, Napoli. no comments

Gonz Solo: Galactic smuggler and reckless mercenary who combats the forces of the Dark Side with his powerful Solo Home Runs. Alone in San Diego with no Chewbacca to protect him in the lineup and desperate to pay off a debt owed to Jabba the Hutt, Gonz Solo will be heading to greener pastures at some point this season. This makes him a potential First Round value come playoff time in H2H leagues.

Adrian Gonzalez hit 40 HR last season, 28 on the road and 12 at Petco. He hit 23 solo HR; the Padres didn't do a good job of putting runners on the bases for their slugger. As a result, Gonzalez had 99 RBI compared to his 36 HR / 119 RBI season in 2008. Petco Park has ranked last in ESPNs MLB Park Factors, for 3 straight years. Basically, hitting in San Diego is the equivalent of doing slave work on the desert planet Tatooine.

Gonzalez has increased his Home Run total every season (24, 30, 36, 40). The same story plays out with his ISO (.196, .220, .231, .274), SLG (.500, .502, .510, .551) and BB% (8.2%, 9.0%, 10.6%, 17.5%). Simply put, Adrian Gonzalez is still getting better. He will be 28 years old in May and on a new team in July. Can you imagine Gonz Solo in the White Sox lineup? How about Boston's lineup? Do I dare dream of the rebel aligning himself with the Evil Empire? When the H2H playoffs roll around, Adrian Gonzalez will be just as valuable as Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera. He is definitely a better pick than Joey Votto (who goes a few picks before) and is someone to target in drafts (esp H2H), Dynasty/Keeper leagues and post All-Star Break trades. It's easy for me to imagine Gonzo Solo hitting 45 HR this season and 50 HR in 2011. no comments

The Anabolic Small Balls Dynasty League is close to starting back up for season 3. We keep all players year-to-year and use the waiver system rather than a draft for rookies/free agents. This way, no one will be losing matchups on purpose to get better players in next year's draft. Also, teams who didn't get an Early Round 1 selection in the initial draft, have an opportunity to acquire premiere talent. This is where my dilemma comes into play; I have the #2 Waiver and the #1 Waiver (a Reds homer) will be used on Aroldis Chapman. I have to make a decision between Jason Heyward, Desmond Jennings and Stephen Strasburg.

Anabolic Smalls Balls
12 team, H2H league, 25 man rosters (9 hitters, 9 pitchers, 7 bench)
OBP, SLG, SB, Run, RBI vs W, Hld, Sv, K, ERA, WHIP

"Super Upton Bros" aka "Movin' On Upton" aka "Upton Your Face"

OF- Justin Upton
OF- BJ Upton
OF- Nelson Cruz
OF- Carlos Gonzalez
OF- Johnny Damon
OF- Garrett Jones

SP- Tim Lincecum
SP- Tommy Hanson (#2 Waiver last year)
SP- Matt Cain
SP- Scott Baker
SP- Kevin Slowey
SP- John Maine
SP- Phil Hughes

If this were a team starting from scratch, I'd take Jennings or Heyward, but my team is deep in the OF and a little thin at SP. I have to use Justin Morneau at UT after Miguel Cabrera lost 3B eligibility. I also have Ben Zobrist (who has OF elig), but I'll be using him at 2B. This makes Dan Uggla expendable and I have a Uggla & Strasburg for Yovani Gallardo deal lined up. Jennings will be awesome, but I have a lot of speed with Reyes, Upton and a handful of other players who contribute in SB. Heyward will be a stud, but I already have 4 OF for 3 spots. I could take one of these two and try to trade away Nelson Cruz (30 yrs old), but everyone has an OF on the trade block. I could keep Strasburg, but I don't want to get too crazy about a college pitcher. Plus Washington's defense blows (you may remember Zimmermann and other WAS pitchers being listed on ERA/FIP unlucky lists).

I'm taking Strasburg, only to deal him away. Lincecum, Yovani and Hanson will be a nice 1-2-3 punch as I look to defend my championship. Of course, you may not think as highly of Yovani as I do (13th overall SP). So what would you do? Claim Heyward, Jennings or Strasburg?

Who would you Claim?survey software no comments