Episode 4 of Aaron Murray's Roto Rundowns fantasy podcast has been posted at Roto Savants. We discuss "auction draft strategy and how to tell when a surge in production from a player is for real". Aaron will be representing Roto Savants in Blog Wars.

[Roto Rundowns] # 4 no comments

This is my first real draft of the season. 14 team custom H2H league, OPS and Holds added to standard 5x5 stats, 10 hitters, 9 pitchers, 5 bench. It's my BDay today and I drafted Homer Bailey so you can safely assume I have been consuming Flaming Homers leading up to the draft. I mixed together the remaining contents from near empty liquor bottles, some Krusty's non-narcotic cough syrup and cigarette ash from an ugly sister-in-law and just like that, Homer Bailey joined the team.

Hanley was a no-brainer, Youkilis had a .961 OPS last season (better than ARod & Longoria) and Sizemore was a nice grab in Rd 3. This guy owes me from last season and he helps me acquire speed without losing much in power. I like the balanced approach when it comes to steals. Shin-Shoo Choo also fit in well with this plan.

After Jon Lester was stolen from my hands (at pick 52), I went with Ubaldo Jimenez. He is a favorite of mine going into the season and it showed when I took him in front of Tommy Hanson (60), Johan Santana (64), Josh Johnson (65), Javier Vazquez (69), Kershaw (73) and Gallardo (76). I would like to have waited on the position a little while longer, but I wasn't going to get any of these guys with my next pick.

Berkman and Beckham will be a little bit of a nuisance during the first week. Berkman may not be ready for the Opener, but the only other decent option was Carlos Pena who is 2 for 28 this Spring and coming off finger surgery. In the end I sided with Berkman who had the better OPS (.908) and doesn't have the Batting Average issue. I'm not too excited to roster Berkman, but he's not as bad people make him out to be. Beckham won't have 2B elig until the end of the first week so he can play 3B and Youk can slide over to 1B while Berkman rehabs.

Wandy Rodriguez seemed to fall right into my lap at pick 111. This pick made me happy so I didn't mind reaching a bit for Brett Anderson. He was the next best SP in my ranks and I didn't feel confident getting him 25 picks later. Kevin Slowey was another SP I was hoping wouldn't be snaked in front of me. I have high expectations for Slowey. Carl Pavano isn't the best 5th SP to have, but he isn't bad. I'm really hoping one of my 3 upside pitchers (Bailey, Rzepczynski, Masterson) steps up and breaks out. Wade Davis was another I could have had and I may regret not taking him.

Sure I have some injury candidates in Chipper, Vladi and J.D. Drew, but the three of em are filling up my two UT spots. They all produce when healthy and I feel I can do well mixing and matching. Drew gives me OF depth (.914 OPS), Vladi could produce a profit playing in Texas and Chipper helps protect my 1B and 3B investments and could be a good trade chip when healthy and productive. My closer situation isn't too pretty, but I do have 3, potentially 4, closers. I prefer quantity rather than quality when it comes to my saves. Eventually Gregg will lose the job to Frasor, I mean cmon. In the meantime, I can use the Holds.

Maybe I reached for Napoli a little bit, but the OPS is great, he's having a good Spring, isn't dealing the shoulder issues from last Spring and is on the upswing of his career. I like the Power he possesses. Maybe I'll regret not waiting to take Jorge Posada later and maybe I missed out on Wade Davis, but if I do sulk over these picks and my team ends up not taking home the gold, I'll always have a place to go to drink my misery away. Happiness is just a Flaming Homer awayyyy. no comments

Are you buying the Tommy Hanson hype? I do believe some sabre nerds could be missing out of a great pitcher because of perceived luck in his BABIP, HR/FB% and LOB%.

I may be tempering my enthusiasm for Tommy Gun because I already have him on my dynasty team, so there is no need for me to camp out in front of stores to acquire his services. Then again, it's hard to not buy into the hype when you read stuff like this:

After excelling with three high-quality pitches as a rookie, Tommy Hanson has improved his fourth, the changeup, to the point where he’s confident throwing it in almost any situation. This is bad news for hitters. “It’s a lot better pitch now, and I’m a lot more confident with it”. Hanson already had a mid-90 mph fastball, devastating curveball and good slider, and upgrading his changeup gives the 23-year-old right-hander something softer to keep hitters guessing, particularly left-handers. He threw it last season, but wasn’t confident throwing it in some situations. Hanson worked on his grip with the pitch during the offseason and this spring, and has seen big improvement.

It's nice to see his only negatively valued pitch (1.6 runs below avg) improving and that he has something better to offer Lefties. Hanson's WHIP vs LHB was 1.52, compared to his 0.86 WHIP vs Right Handed Batters.

As for his 2009 numbers and "lucky stats", Hanson pitched four months and posted a boner inducing 11-4 record, 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP with 116 Ks in 127.2 Innings Pitched. As a 23-year-old rookie, those are amazing numbers, but did he deserve them? His xFIP was 4.03, his BABIP was .280 compared to the league avg of .303, he stranded runners at a 80.3% clip (league avg was 71.9%) and he posted a 6.9% HR/FB% (about 4% below the league avg).

No sabre stat is perfect and I know that xFIP normalizes some stats, including HR/FB%. However, some pitchers do have the ability to maintain a HR/FB% below league average. In some cases we can say forget xFIP. Why do I think Tommy can maintain such a low HR/FB%? He's been doing it with his BABIP, so we know he has the ability to not allow batters to square up and make solid contact on his pitches. The last time Hanson had a BABIP above .290 was in 2006 Rookie ball (.308).

Hanson improved as the season progressed. In June his K/9 was 5.59 and his BB/9 was 5.28. This did not last long, his K/9 went up to 6.47 in July, 10.41 in August and 9.92 in Sept/Oct. Hanson's BB/9 fell to 2.53 in July, 1.95 in August and 3.23 in Sept/Oct. People who expect his 8.18 K/9 and 3.24 BB/9 to improve are probably looking in the right direction.

So what do we have? A rookie who experienced some luck and will experience some regression or a once a decade stud muffin who defies logic? Could he possibly be the 4th Hanson brother? Did he ghost write MmmBop? All I know is that he's 23, has plus control, great strikeout ability and 4 plus pitches. Batters and sabre nerds have a hard time figuring out what to expect. I'd draft Hanson with confidence and wouldn't be afraid to help reduce his 80.66 ADP. Close your eyes and pull the trigger on Tommy Gun. I originally had him slotted 19th in my SP ranks, but I'm finally coming around and I'll bump him up, maybe 13th, maybe even higher... I'm trying not to go too crazy tho. no comments

Want a free copy of MLB 2K10 for the game system of your choice? An Evan Longoria Fathead Jr? A Buffalo Wild Wings hoodie? Roto Experts has a contest and you gotta Fight For Your Write. Create a draft strategy from their Free Draft Kit, describe how you used their insight to get a leg up on the competition and claim your prizes. The winner will have their work published on the Roto Experts website and I think I already know who is going to win... MDS. Below you will find an excerpt from the soon to be winning article.

Fight For Your Write is an obvious play on the Beastie Boys, so picture Mark Strausberg and Chris Carbonell sitting on a couch talking about the contest, when MDS busts down the door with his size 13 boot. KICK IT!

"I have read all the great information provided by the Roto Experts staff and created the best eva draft strategy. I'm going to draft Joe Mauer in Rd 1 and draft another Catcher in Rd 2 and 3. The position is so shallow so I will have major trade bait after the draft. The guy who drafted Albert Pujols will come crawling to me and I’ll give him Russell Martin straight up for Prince Albert. In Rd 4 I will address Saves, going with KRod or Brad Lidge. KRod set the record not too long ago and Lidge was perfect in 2008. I can't miss! In Rd 5 and 6 I will draft Stolen Bases. I’m thinking these Rds are the perfect time to draft Juan Pierre and Willy Tavares. In 2003 Juan Pierre stole 65 bases, eat your heart out Carl Crawford. What! What!"

and it goes on from there. You have 2,000 words to best MDS. Good Luck.

A contest I actually want to win is Fan vs Wild with Bear Grylls. I've been camping in the Boundary Waters, solo style, for over 40 days so hiking, climbing and swimming with Bear wont be tough. I'm hoping for being stranded on a tropical island with plenty of coconuts, wild pigs and native women. I might not come back. no comments

MDS will be talking with Aaron Murray from Roto Savants for his Roto Rundowns podcast show. Aaron will be representing Roto Savants in the infamous Blog Wars league. He will let me gush over Jon Lester and we'll also talk auction league strategy. I'll link to the show when it's posted. For now, you can check out previous episodes...

[Roto Rundowns #1] Snake draft strategy

[Roto Rundowns #2] w/ Troy Patterson, sabre stats and player evaluation, Votto vs Gonz Solo no comments

As a sex crazed, self-proclaimed expert who has a passion for baseball and enjoys having fantasy affairs with one minor leaguer each season; I think I'm developing a soft spot for Crush Davis. Yes, the same Crush Davis who struck out in 38.4% of his At Bats and hit .238 last season for the Rangers. I almost wish it weren't true, but people do crazy things for love and a Third Baseman.

I know the Strikeouts are a huge cause for concern, but hang with me for a minute. He was striking out around 23%-26% in the minors; so I would think his major league K Rate would be near 30% initially and slowly get a little better. That's basically what happened in 2008 after his call up. In 2009, Davis was horrible and was sent down to work on his approach in an environment with less pressure. When he did come back, he hit .318 in Sept/Oct. This was with a .385 BABIP so let's not go believing he is a .300 plus hitter now, but he did cut the K Rate down in a big way. In March/April, Davis struck out 48.6% of the time. Every month after that he was able to improve the K Rate; 45.3% in May, 40.2% in June, 36.4% in July, 34.8% in August and 25.5% in Sept/Oct.

When Davis was sent down he was hitting .202 with 15 HR and 114 Strike Outs over 258 At Bats. During his time in AAA, he was able to cleanse his mind and work on his swing. He felt more comfortable, was seeing the ball better and made much needed adjustments. The results were pleasing; he hit .327 and struck out 39 times over 164 At Bats (23.8%).

So far this spring Davis has been impressive, even receiving praise from Ron Washington. Through 26 At Bats, Davis has hit .538 with 4 Strike Outs (15.4%). If you extrapolate that over the course of a full seaso.... just kidding, but what does MDS expect from Crush in 2010? I feel confident projecting a .270 AVG with 28 HR. Not bad numbers for a 1B/3B/CI at his 154 ADP. I'd really like to have him at the Corner Infield spot backing up a ARod, Longo, Pablo type 3B with his dual eligibility, but if I miss out on the top guys, I would feel comfortable with Crush manning the hot corner. In leagues with low replacement rates (deep leagues), I'd take Chris Davis over Chipper Jones (ADP 136).

If do you do select Crush, just dont draft Brandon "Nuke/Meat" Morrow too (take that Starbonell). Those two will be fighting over women and Crush will be tipping pitches. Plus no one wants to see Morrow in the clubhouse wearing women's underwear. Just don't tell Crush that his Spring Training stats are try outs for your team. He doesn't try out and he doesn't believe in quantum physics when it comes to matters of the heart. no comments

Salfino is going crazy people. Blackball and blackmail are just a few of the words he is throwing around after the latest Smackdown episode. Apparently I'm an amateur and notorious heckler who literally says, "debate me or I'll trash you." Maybe he didn't get the memo that I AM a self-proclaimed expert. He even goes as far to say we'd be implicit equals. I find that to be very offensive; he can't drag me down to his level.

What a funny dude. It should be known, I am the reason he created a twitter account and you can read all the juicy gossip [@RotoAction], where he basically wrote more than he would have needed to write in a response to my views of J.A. Happ. I'm pretty sure he didn't get paid to write that either. no comments

MDS tears Salfino a new one after Mikey blew smoke out of his ass. J.A. Happ is not a changeup pitcher and those guys do not defy BIP odds. Who does this guy think he is... besides a raging anti-favreite. Nicks before Colston? Garland? Making up lies about Happ to back up his claims? Ducking MDS? Time to make an example....

[Smackdown] at Base-Heads.com no comments

Million Dollar Question: how do you feel about Rick Porcello?

2009 Yahoo Rank: 244
2010 Yahoo O-Rank: 140

That is a big jump for someone who didn't miss any time with an injury. I understand he is/was a big time prospect and the Tigers were limiting his usage last season, but damn Gina, how ya gonna move him up over 100 spots on us? I thought Yahoo left the hype propaganda up to Behrens and Evans. Don't worry Porcello enthusiasts, his MDC ADP is currently sitting at 206.

Scouting Report from SaberScouting:

Physical Description - Long limbs, wide chest, square shoulders, average build throughout, solid bulk in legs, room to add solid build, up to 15 lbs of muscle. Well-proportioned, prototypical pitcher’s body. Resembles Justin Verlander or Roy Halladay.

Fastball - Ranged from 90-94 with movement and control all night, and everyone in the building knew he had 96-97 in his back pocket and he never brought it out. That alone was the most impressive thing about him. He was darting sinkers up to 94 right where he wanted them and varied the sink and arm-side run from pitch-to-pitch. Sat 91-93 with above-average life, movement, and control. Beyond that, he didn’t even rely on the fastball and just throw it exclusively. For a 19-year-old, that’s almost unfair. But there’s more…

Curveball - Ranged from 71-74; this was his signature hammer in high school and he threw less than 5 tonight. It had excellent depth, spin, and 12-to-6 tilt but lacked late bite. You give him a pass on that because everything else was so good and he only threw a few and didn’t have feel for it yet. Not sure if he shied away from it due to preference, mandate, or lack of feel, but I can put a future 60 on it, reports out of HS said it could easily be north of that. I’m sure I’ll get a better look in future starts.

Slider - Sat at 78-79; this was his weakest pitch but was the breaking pitch he used most often. It is a slurve that he primarily back-doored to left-handed hitters early in the count. It fills a need as a horizontal version of his curveball but it backed up in him a few times and also lacked bite but had flashed some late movement. It could’ve just been an off-day for his breaking stuff, but if he tightened that into a two-plane slider, it could be filthy.

Changeup - Ranged from 76-79; this was what really impressed everyone. It appears he just had a better feel for his change than his breaking stuff tonight and relied on it instead. He flashed a lot of 60s as a true swing-and-miss pitch to big league hitters. It is a mostly vertical drop due to his arm angle, but it’s late and it disappears. He mixed in a few on the corners with more horizontal break. Showed good command of it and used it as his out-pitch tonight. This pitch is why people love this guy. Without it, he’s just another tall guy with some velocity and command than can spin it, which is still rare, but not Chinese River Dolphin rare.

Mechanics - Sound mechanics. High 3/4 arm angle, clean and easy arm with average deception. Good torque in the motion and has an excellent decelerating finish with his arm on the follow through. Balance is good and doesn’t fall off at the end of his motion, in a good fielding position. Great leg drive. Late in the game (last clip in video) he lost his command and everything was up because he wasn’t tucking his chest and stayed high a few clicks too long. He battled and was at his pitch count and left after that inning. Motion is similar to John Smoltz.

Summary - You can see why teams loved him in the draft—he has all the elements you look for in a young pitcher. Tonight he showed a great projectable body, sound mechanics, great command for his age, great feel for a plus fastball, ability to spin a plus breaking ball, a knockout changeup, potential plus command, and the intelligence to know when and how to use these tools. Not sure what else you could want, really. There’s been tons of hype tossed on this guy by about any writer that can spell his name, but it doesn’t look like it’s gone to his head and he’s everything that was advertised.

According to Roto Wire, Jim Leyland will not restrict Porcello's pitch count this season, like he did the last. They also say he should have more pitches in his arsenal and he has the stuff to develop into a strikeout pitcher. I am a little skeptical of that last statement (at least for the 2010 season). His K Rate in Single A ball was only 5.18 K/9 (he was only 19 at the time tho).

Last season, Porcello threw his Fastball 77% of the time. That is a large number. He was able to generate a lot of ground balls (54%, 1.89 GB/FB) with his sinking action. He only threw his Slider 5.3%, his Curve 8.1% and Change-Up 9.5% of the time. This year, can we expect him to throw more Sliders? This would help him create more O-Swings with a lower O-Contact% (more Ks). More Curves and Change-Ups would also help the K Rate. When he does open up his arsenal, what kind of jump in Ks can we expect? It was an extremely weak 4.69 K/9 last season and during one month it was actually lower than his Walk Rate.

What Porcello really excelled at was his control. A 2.74 BB/9 is phenomenal for a rookie, especially at that age. he displayed exceptional control and it got better as the season came to a close: April (2.49), May (3.00), June (3.73), July (3.14), August (2.30), Sept/Oct (2.14). With such great control, Porcello should have posted a better F-Strike%. It was only 55.4% compared to the 58.2% league average. I fully expect his F-Strike% to increase, giving him more pitcher counts, thus generating more Strike Outs.

The kid will be 21 during the 2010 season; he is actually younger than Stephen Strasburg. He has already shown superb ability to induce ground balls and control the strike zone. When he pushes that K Rate up closer to the league average, he's going to be very special. He is definitely someone to trade for now in Dynasty/Keeper league before he improves, but what kind of K Rate can we expect this season? Assuming he opens up the aresenal, goes deeper into games and builds arm strength, he will definitely be worth the ADP. Is he worth that 140 O-Rank? Would you be willing to spend a Round 12 pick on Rick Porcello? I don't know if I'd go that early, but I do want him on at least 1 team. If I don't land him, I'll likely be forced to player hate. Like my homie The Situation says, if hatin' is your occupation, Porcello probably has a full time job for you.

Where are you drafting Porcello?online surveys no comments

Risers

Roy Halladay is no surprise. I was flipping thru the channels and ESPN had their Halladay Win total Over/Under at 45. A lot of ppl have Halladay as the #2 SP on their boards. Beckett, Yovani, Kershaw, Hamels, Ubaldo, Nolasco, Wandy do not surprise me either. Everyone wants some sort of action from these middle round SP2 who should ascend to SP1 status. I just wish Yovani wasn't so expensive. I think Josh Johnson and Josh Beckett are priced out of my range now. My homeboy Brett Anderson made a 50 pick jump in about a week. Damn Gina! I knew he would reach the 140s at some point, but that was quick. He may be pushing the 120s by Opening Day. I'm not too fond of Garza or Shields. While I'm not avoiding Garza; I just don't want to pay for any AL East pitchers not named Lester. Shields is just an average pitcher, no need to be reaching for him. Mad Max isn't faring too well in Spring Training (not that I would put too much stock in that) and his conversion to the AL could be bumpy. I'm not reaching for him either. I am a little surprised Scott Baker's ADP isn't higher. He is advertised by websites and is just as good as James Shields. Don't be afraid to draft him before his 151 ADP. I like Dempster at his ADP. Gavin is just as good as Scott Baker and going 15 picks later, sign me up. Liriano is climbing the charts fast and I wouldn't hesitate to draft him at the 233 mark.

Fallers

A 3 pick drop from Greinke isn't much to talk about, it's just a little surprising to see him going as the 4th SP now. He was the run away 2nd SP no more than 6 weeks ago. People would rather listen to Black Sabathia before Zack Attack? Get outta here. What happened to Jake Peavy's ADP? A 24 pick drop off? I understand the hesitation to draft him after the move from Petco to the AL and he has injury issues, but he does have a superb K Rate and decent control. I don't disagree with his ADP; I just don't understand the sudden hatred. Maybe it has something to do with Yahoo undervaluing him in their Mock Auction dollar values. John Lackey is an OK pitcher, but he isn't anything special and he's entering an environment that won't be as forgiving as the AL West. He won't be on any of my teams. Brandon Webb is likely to start the season on the DL and I don't mess with shoulder issues anymore. Peace Out B-Webb; expect that ADP to keep dropping. Jair Jurrjens; no!!!!! His shoulder is getting better people, keep reaching for him and I'll keep laughing. Edwin Jackson too; stay away from me please. Ted Lilly is getting the DL/ADP dropoff treament too. There seems to be some optimism for him to pitch before the season starts, but I'm not buying it. That 180 ADP isn't too shabby tho. If it gets worse, I might be interested. Randy Wolf is finally getting the respect (or no respect) that he deserves. Big time regression candidate. What's Happ-ening with J.A.'s ADP? Are people finally realizing he is due for regression? That was already priced into his ADP tho. I am a little surprised to see Strasburg drop and Aroldis Chapman go up. Huh? What the hell happened to Feldman? Only Kramer's bizarro world double could drop 70 picks in a matter of a week. Nobody needs to be messing with Kevin Millwood. no comments