At long last, the 2011 OF Rankings and Projections are here. There are 100 Outfielders included, but Desmond Jennings didn't make the cut. Tampa will not promote him. Ever. Give up all hope. There's also bad news for lovers of Jayson Werth; your boy is overrated. There is good news; however, a comment section awaits your disapproval. Make the jump for your 2011 Outfield rankings and projections.
Chris Young was just credited with 5 more SB, pushing him up to 28. Kirk Gibson baby. Justin Upton stayed at 20 SB, I don't think he wants to run very much.
I played it safe with Rajai's At Bats, he could possibly log 50 more. Podsednik only inked a minor league deal and isn't playing (plantar fasciitis) so he doesn't look like much of a threat right now. He may be more of a threat to Edwin Encarnacion's PT. Rivera could slide to DH if they want Pods in the OF.
I love your projection on Rajai Davis, I've been nabbing him late in mocks I think he'll pretty much be Ellsbury with 20 fewer runs, but are you at all concerned that Podsednik steals AB's or the leadoff spot?
Dont confuse SABR stats and wanna-be SABR stats. If you want to calculate SABR stats, you have to be a feel guy. Making projections is about statistics combined with scouting reports. Scouting reports will tell you why statistics have changed. Anyone who doesnt read up on Jose Bautista's new approach at the plate will never make an accurate projection for him.
For some reason I thought you were a SABR guy, but I guess you are more of a 'feel' guy. Good luck with your projections this year!!
when I do my SP projections (and dominate all projection system out there) I will not even look at xFIP, FIP, tERA, qERA or any of these other so called "sabre stats". people invent stats to be the new cool guy. I dont need them and I dont want them. Every player is different, you must treat them so.
we had a great convo in here before the new comment system was put in, detailing why Bruce's average is higher than most would think it would be. I don't know what xBA is, nor do I want to. You need only three things to calculate a Batting Average: K%, HR and BABIP. K% comes from making judgements based on Plate Discipline statistics, minor league numbers and a player's progression, HR comes from Fly Balls multiplied by HR/FB% and BABIP has to do with LD%, GB%, FB% and speed. All players are different so using a xBABIP calculator is useless. I don't trust Bill James' Speed Score, but it's a decent reference point. Stolen Bases have more to do with coaching than a player's pure speed. Watch the Brewers this year.
Jay Bruce's Batting Average comes from a 22.6% K%, 192 Fly Balls multiplied by a 17.2% HR/FB% and a .331 BABIP. All stats are backed up by a track record. Ignore the .221 BABIP from 2009. He was posting BABIP numbers in the minors ranging from .357 to .429 and last year he posted a solid .334 BABIP.
Check out our Jay Bruce player page (http://www.rotochamp.com/players/Player.aspx?MLBAMID=457803&PlayerType=Hitter)
He only had an xBA of .257 last year so .295 is pretty optimistic, don't you think?