.jpg&w=244&h=193&zc=1 "Star's Shares: 5/14/13")
2013 Rankings and Projections: First Base
You don't want Butler manning 1B for you. Foot on the bag Billy!
I like Big Butlers and I cannot lie. OK that was a lie. I do not like big, fat Billy Butlers. How can a guy hit home runs and steal bases when his man breasts are flopping around? Do not pay for the career year. Butler's HR total is pointing in the same direction as his missile titties; straight down. First base is as deep as ever so there is no reason to reach, overspend, or invest heavily at the position. My tenth best 1B: Ike Davis; my tenth best 2B: David Eckstein. Will Albert Pujols don the MDM uniform? Unlikely. And with that, off we go.
More after the jump:
This post is also known as The Misadventures of Adam Done.
Stats: AVG, HR, Runs, RBI, SB (Plate Appearances)
Albert Pujols .304 - 37 - 105 - 105 - 7 (695)
Prince Fielder .301 - 37 - 95 - 110 - 1 (690)
Joey Votto .329 - 29 - 100 - 105 - 8 (655)
Edwin Encarnacion .275 - 39 - 90 - 105 - 10 (650)
Adrian Gonzalez .304 - 31 - 95 - 105 - 1 (680)
Paul Goldschmidt .282 - 30 - 90 - 95 - 10 (635)
Allen Craig .302 - 31 - 100 - 85 - 4 (670)
Paul Konerko .297 - 31 - 85 - 95 - 1 (625)
Ryan Howard .266 - 34 - 90 - 105 - 0 (645)
Ike Davis .270 - 31 - 85 - 100 - 1 (650)
Anthony Rizzo .270 - 28 - 85 - 95 - 4 (650)
David Ortiz .301 - 32 - 90 - 105 - 0 (600)
Chris Davis .271 - 31 - 75 - 90 - 3 (600)
Freddie Freeman .277 - 24 - 90 - 90 - 3 (635)
Billy Butler .299 - 20 - 80 - 90 - 2 (670)
Lance Berkman .284 - 25 - 90 - 90 - 3 (625)
Eric Hosmer .282 - 18 - 70 - 75 - 15 (595)
Adam LaRoche .272 - 27 - 80 - 90 - 1 (630)
Mark Teixeira .276 - 25 - 70 - 75 - 1 (510)
Justin Morneau .272 - 25 - 75 - 85 - 0 (600)
Brandon Belt .286 - 21 - 60 - 70 - 10 (550)
Adam Dunn .226 - 34 - 80 - 90 - 1 (620)
Chris Carter .238 - 34 - 75 - 85 - 3 (600)
Kendrys Morales .283 - 21 - 60 - 65 - 1 (450)
Adam Lind .268 - 24 - 75 - 80 - 1 (605)
Yonder Alonso 282 - 18 - 75 - 75 - 4 (635)
Brandon Moss .261 - 22 - 70 - 75 - 1 (505)
Carlos Pena .226 - 27 - 75 - 80 - 2 (600)
Mitch Moreland .267 - 20 - 55 - 60 - 1 (515)
Mat Gamel .280 - 24 - 75 - 85 - 4 (615)
Todd Helton .296 - 14 - 60 - 65 - 0 (500)
Justin Smoak .248 - 20 - 60 - 65 - 1 (550)
Brett Wallace .250 - 12 - 60 - 60 - 1 (565)
Mat Gamel will not reach 615 Plate Appearances, but who the hell wants to draft Helton, Smoak or Wallace?
More Rankings/Projections [C, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, SP, RP]
*Catcher, OF and SP have been updated as of 3/6/13.
Why post that a guy who definitely won't make 600 AB with 615 of them, but someone who has a chance at getting there in Morales only getting 450?
Morales is platooning. He gets the Righties. Jason Bay with the southies (MLBDepthCharts.com).
You PA method of setting a baseline certainly makes sense, and I agree tiers are the best way to approach any style draft really. I'm liking Goldy quite a bit this year, AGonz too at their going rates.
No arguments with most of these rankings, I'd knock Big Papi's numbers down (achilles' tendonitis/heel spurs are chronic, his age and size only make it worse) and I'm skeptical Tex hits that many HR's - his wrist injury is similar to Bautista's last year, wouldn't surprise me if the power isn't as good and/or he reinjures.
Is it sad as a Twins fan that .272 with 25HR's has me excited about Morneau? Maybe we get 70 wins this year!
Screw the Twins! They don't do anything for us. I helped pay for their stadium and now I have to pay to go into it! I have little interest in the "economy" they bring to the cities: shitty food, no tangible goods and low paying jobs. I hope Morneau goes down with a concussion after a bird shits on his head.
Also, because I only compete in auction leagues, I don't focus too much attention on, "who would I rather draft: this guy or this guy". I have a loose set of rankings and make sensible purchases. The projections act as tiers, telling me who is overpriced or underpriced.
I try to credit players with 155 games played unless they've shown they can play 160 consistently (or their name is Brian Roberts). Two reasons: predicting the number of games missed by injury is kind of silly and I want to show what you should expect if no injury occurs. 700 PA is a good number for someone atop a lineup. The strength of the lineup will affect the number. I usually chop off 15 PA with each spot moved down in the batting order. I wouldn't draft Craig expecting him to play 155 games, but Konerko, Howard and Ike aren't without issues either. Knocking people down the rankings based on injury concern is another issue in itself. How far you drop them depends on the level of replacement player. The worse the replacement, the further down you should drop the to-be-injured player. Many factors at play, I'm just giving you a baseline to deviate.
Killer work as always! I'm curious how you derive the plate appearance numbers. I would think a guy like Allen Craig who's hurt all the time should be expected to see fewer PA's than healthier options like Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman or Ike Davis regardless of lineup spot...right?
