Alexi Ogando may have been the luckiest Pitcher in baseball during March/April
Photo Cred: Mike LaChance

Only four Starting Pitchers posted a Batting Average of Balls In Play of .250 or better during the 2010 baseball season. Those four were Trevor Cahill, Bronson Arroyo, Ted Lilly and Tim Hudson and all four limited Line Drive damage (BABIP and LD% usually go hand-in-hand). The BABIP numbers they put up in 2010 represented career bests so I wouldn't expect them to repeat those performances. Through the first month of 2011, we had 23 Starting Pitchers who registered a BABIP of .250 or better. We can pretty much say all these Pitchers have experienced some luck in one form or another, but some have enjoyed more luck than others. Let's take a look at this group of potential Sell High candidates.

                                              Big trouble for Big Jon Broxton

Over the last week or so we’ve had injury news surface regarding three of fantasy baseball more volatile closers: Jonathan Broxton, Brandon Lyon and David Aardsma.  I know what you’re thinking, these guys all suck, who cares if they’re injured, I already dropped them before they got hurt because I’m a fantasy baseball wizard and dominate my 8 team public league!  Well I care, as do folks who play competitive fantasy baseball, and as the resident PT for the SoR, it’s my duty to please that injured booty, even if that booty is big and nasty like Jonathan Broxton’s.

Currrrrrrrrrrrrtis!
Photo Credit: Keith Allison

After struggling in his first year as a Yankee (.247/.324./468), Curtis Granderson is on fire right now. He’s already rapped 11 homers in 129 PAs, and is hitting .283 with 24 runs, 23 RBIs, and a pair of stolen bases (in three attempts). All-World hitting coach Kevin Long re-worked Granderson’s swing last August, and the Yankees OF went on to hit .261 with 14 HRs, 34 RBIs, 27 Rs, and two SBs in 192 PAs for the remainder of 2010. What’s really impressive about Granderson’s turnaround is his vast improvement against lefties. Though he only has 36 PAs against lefties, he’s hit five homers off them with a .281 average. Considering he batted .234 against LHPs last year and owns a .218 BA lifetime versus lefties, his recent success against them is pretty ridiculous. Granderson has been so good that he’s now the second hitter in the Yankees’ awesome offense, and we all know of the spoils that can come with that role.

Of course, there are some warning signs that a regression is right around the corner. For one, his 25.6 HR/FB (13.1 career) seems pretty damn fortunate. I do think we’ll see him post the best HR/FB of his career thanks to the shortened swing and I actually believe 40 HRs is a slim possibility thanks to Yankee Stadium’s lefty-friendly park, but once more of those fly balls land in gloves rather than stands (50.6 FB%), we’ll see that BA start to come down. For all his HR damage, Granderson only has a 14.1 LD%, which is more than six points below his career mark. He’s also been more aggressive at the plate (career high 44.1 Swing%), so if opposing pitchers pick up on that, he may get a bit exposed. And let’s face it, speed just isn’t a huge part of Granderson’s game anymore, so don’t go banking on 20 swipes.

Overall fantasy owners should be pretty happy with what they paid for Granderson, but the question remains: do we sell sky-high due to fear of a BA regression and power slump? Or do we hold on and bank on the HR-happy confines of Yankee Stadium and support of New York’s lineup? Cast your vote.

Sport some Wood this week.
Photo Credit: mwlguide

Two-start sleeper: Travis Wood (17%)

In his last outing, Wood struck out seven, walked none and allowed one earned run on four hits in seven innings against the Brewers. In his 37.2 innings pitched this season, Wood has struck out over eight per nine and walked around three per nine (2.6 K/BB). However, he's been killed by a .365 BABIP and extremely low 60% strand rate (tied for the seventh lowest strand rate in baseball right now). While his location hasn't been great, Wood has the ability to make a big improvement in that area, as evident by his 2.28 BB/9 last year.

He'll face Houston on Monday, which is a favorable matchup. Sunday's matchup against Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals is going to be tougher, but if Wood has indeed turned the corner on his 2011 season, he has the upside to pitch well against any offense.

Two-start bust: Josh Tomlin (52%)

One of my favorite sayings is that, at some point, the bend has got to break. Josh Tomlin is a prime candidate to break and not as in "break-out". He has four wins, an eye catching 2.43 ERA and a majestic 0.81 WHIP. However, smoke and mirrors can do wonders. Tomlin has been the beneficiary of  the lowest BABIP against of any starting pitcher in baseball this season (.157). On top of that, he has also benefited from the second highest strand rate of any starter in baseball (91%). Sure, he has done a great job of limiting walks, but he has only struck out 23 batters in 40.2 innings. When a pitcher relies that heavily on the results of his balls in play, the risk is extremely high. The Indians defense has obviously played a large role, but even a great defensive team can't help a 5 K/9 pitcher this much for an entire season. 

Don't be surprised if Tomlin gets knocked around Tuesday at Tampa Bay. His second start of the week comes against the punchless Mariners, but he'll go head-to-head with one of the best young pitchers in the game, Michael Pineda.

Even moms who are bitches put in work.
Photo Credit: AirBeagle

In the spirit of “mom-ness,” I’ll try to offer encouraging takes on the players instead of being really hard on them (pause). 

That was the original plan, until I thought how much more awesome it would be to speak about the players from the “mother” perspective. 

Then I thought, eh, that’s pretty lame.

Then when I realized I was low on time, it struck me, “Well, I guess I got no other choice.”

So it is with true reluctance that I bring you, MLB Real Talk, the Ma’ Dukes Day edition.
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The hell you smiling about Nick? You suck playa!
Photo Credit: Keith Allison

With only one HR and a .214 BA heading into Saturday’s games, Nick Swisher has been, how do you say, not very good. Last year, all-world hitting coach Kevin Long (who you can credit for Curtis Granderson’s resurgence, Mark Teixeira’s newfound April success, and Robinson Cano’s ascension to the elite tier of major league hitters) had Swisher adopt a more aggressive approach that saw him take more swings than ever before (44.5 Swing%). He’s still swinging the bat more than he used to (42.1 Swing%), and he’s actually improved his plate approach while doing so. Swishalicious is posting his lowest K% (21.4) since his rookie season and his BB% sits at a healthy 15.7 mark. So if he’s still taking Long’s advice by swinging more often but is also maintaining an elite batting eye, what the hell is going on? As a Yankee fan and someone who watches virtually every game, the problem is pretty simple. Major league pitchers are simply attacking him differently. Swisher kills fastballs, but this season when he’s been in fastball counts, he’s been seeing everything except heaters. That has hurt his power numbers since Swisher can drive the fastball a long way and even though he’s still making good contact in general (25.0 LD%), the lack of fastballs in counts where he’s expecting them has caused his HR/FB to tumble to 3.2 percent (14.6 career). It’s not that Swisher can’t hit a breaking pitch for a HR, it’s just that he can’t murder them the way he can a heater. 

Since team’s are keeping him humble, you have to expect opposing pitchers to continue doing this until he forces them to adjust. The key in all this is how will Swisher adapt. The good news is that Swisher’s .253 BABIP looks flukey considering his high LD%, so some of this will correct itself. That said, he’ll have to make some adjustments to put himself in situations where he can get fastballs to drive out of the park, otherwise the power numbers will continue to be below draft value. That means he’ll either have to start hammering breaking pitches, or engage in a tricky game of cat-and-mouse with hurlers by trying to guess when they’ll throw a fastball. The latter will be far more difficult to pull off since pitchers are already playing games with his mind, so fantasy owners better hope that Long can get Swisher to do more damage on breaking stuff. no comments

More like Zimmer-womann
Photo Credit: Miss Chatter

Jordan Zimmermann was a pretty popular sleeper pick this year and while he hasn't been terrible to date (4.29 ERA and 1.26 WHIP), he just isn't showing any of the strikeout upside that made him an intriguing fantasy rookie in 2009 (when he had a 9.07 K/9 in 91.1 IP). As if the 4.54 K/9 isn't bad enough, he's getting swings and misses on only 4.8 percent of his pitches (that's Javier Vazquez territory). Homeboy is actually throwing as hard as he did in his rookie year (93.2 mph), but he's flashing less movement on his pitches and hitters are tagging him for a 90.2 Contact% (which is WORSE than Javier Vazquez's mark). I don't know about you, but when a player on my team has numbers that resemble anything close to what Javier Vazquez is doing, I'm scared. And yes, I own Zimmermann in two leagues, the Starbonell Station jump-off and Million Dollar Sleeper's Blog Wars. I'll probably be stuck with him because I doubt anyone in the leagues I'm in will be dumb enough to fall for the ole' wack player sales pitch. However, I could see people taking a chance on him in some sort of a package trade in most leagues. Treat this as a complete and utter endorsement of Zimmermann as a "sell-mediocre" player.

Jose Tabata is dealing with a tight hamstring and for all the fanfare he's received, he's batting .180 in his last 68 PAs. He's been a pretty frustrating player to own lately, but he should still prove to fetch you a fine profit for your draft/auction day investment. He won't hit for much power (don't be fooled by the three HRs), but his newfound plate patience is very encouraging for his 2011 prospects. Not only is his BB% up to 11.3 (6.3 last year), but he's showing a very good eye as only 19.3 percent of his swings have been at pitches outside the strike zone. With his improved plate patience, ability to make contact and speed on the base paths, he looks like he'll finish the season as a solid OF3.

Speaking of Pirates who are sucking right now, Pedro Alvarez, where you at kid? I wasn't high on the young Bucco coming into the season due to the strikeout and BA concerns, but who knew he'd be this bad. His K% is the same as it was last year (a horrific 34.3 percent), yet this year's he's walking at a lower clip (7.4 BB%) and hitting the ball with less authority (10.9 LD%, .071 ISO, and 56.3 GB%). Honestly, he just doesn't look like a major league player right now. The power is certainly there for him to be a great fantasy 3B, but he is clearly being overmatched by big league pitching. I just don't see this turning out well for Alvarez owners in 2011 and while I wouldn't cut him outright at the moment, my hopes for him are as low as a fat girl's self esteem.

Can Eric Hosmer make Kauffman Stadium his bitch?
Photo Credit: jeffisageek

The up-and-coming Kansas City Royals made headlines today by calling up their top prospect, first baseman Eric Hosmer. Baseball America ranked Hosmer No. 8 on their Top 100 Prospects list in February, and he is the consensus No. 1 1B prospect in the league. To make room for Hosmer, the struggling Kila Ka'aihue was demoted to Omaha.

Hosmer is a must-add in all leagues. The No. 3 overall pick in the 2008 MLB Draft, the 6-foot-4 lefty will post good power numbers with an excellent average. Expect 17-22 HR the rest of this season with an average near .300. The former Storm Chaser demonstrated excellent plate discipline in the Minors (.393 career OBP) so Hosmer is even more valuable in leagues that count OBP or strikeouts. His upside is higher than Freddie Freeman, Brandon Belt, Anthony Rizzo or any other 1B prospect expected to debut in 2011 or 2012. Do not hesitate to use a top waiver pick on Hosmer, and spend your entire FAAB budget if you really need a hitter. 

Kila Ka'aihue, on the other hand, can be dropped even in the deepest AL-only leagues.  Many pundits expected the Kila Monster to get a longer look from the Royals after 3 successful seasons in AAA.  But after posting a putrid .195 average through 23 games, Ka'aihue was expelled like a rotten pineapple. Presumably, the Royals now consider him to be merely organizational depth.

Going forward, here are my rankings for the top 10 first basemen in the Minor Leagues. Keep in mind, Eric Hosmer should be ranked way ahead of everybody on this list:  

1. Brandon Belt, SF 
2. Anthony Rizzo, SD 
3. John Singleton, PHI 
4. Yonder Alonso, CIN 
5. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI 
6. Rich Poythress, SEA 
7. Brandon Allen, ARI 
8. Chris Marrero, WAS 
9. Cody Hawn, MIL 
10. Matt Adams, STL  

There is a huge drop-off between Goldschmidt and Poythress. Heading into this season, Freddie Freeman was ranked above Belt, and Mark Trumbo was ranked above Goldschmidt.

Matt Joyce's secret to success? Jerking it before BP.
Photo Credit: mwlguide 

Matt LaPorta vs. Matt Joyce may not seem like a headline match worthy of the first-ever SOR edition of "Beef: The Series," but look closely and you'll see two young warriors ready to eat each other's innards.

When Adrian Gonzalez was traded from the Padres to the Red Sox he left behind the most extreme pitcher's park in baseball for a more favorable destination in Boston. Petco Park in San Diego scores a 59 in HR for Left Handed Batters while Fenway rates at a 84 [Stat Corner]. A score of 84 isn't great by any means, but it's far better than a score of 59. Red Sox faithful had months to celebrate and day dream about the possibility of a 50-HR season from their recently acquired bruiser. It wasn't long before First Round draft picks were spent on the slugger formerly known as Gonz Solo. Today is May 5th and Adrian Gonzalez has two Home Runs. Two. Adrian claims his shoulder is healthy (after surgery) and the problem lies in his mechanics. He says he is "top-spinning everything" [link]. His percentage of Ground Balls is 6% higher than his career norm so maybe he has a point, but I wouldn't expect any athlete to admit he is weak and feeble. Maybe Tito Ortiz, but he's the lone exception. Shoulder surgery has been known to sap a player's power and Adrian isn't far removed from the procedure and the long process of rehabilitation. We're asking you if Adrian's power will be restored with a simple change of mechanics or if this a surgery-related issue that may pose a problem for those who spent their life savings to acquire Gonzalez.