Sport some Wood this week.
Photo Credit: mwlguide
Two-start sleeper: Travis Wood (17%)
In his last outing, Wood struck out seven, walked none and allowed one earned run on four hits in seven innings against the Brewers. In his 37.2 innings pitched this season, Wood has struck out over eight per nine and walked around three per nine (2.6 K/BB). However, he's been killed by a .365 BABIP and extremely low 60% strand rate (tied for the seventh lowest strand rate in baseball right now). While his location hasn't been great, Wood has the ability to make a big improvement in that area, as evident by his 2.28 BB/9 last year.
He'll face Houston on Monday, which is a favorable matchup. Sunday's matchup against Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals is going to be tougher, but if Wood has indeed turned the corner on his 2011 season, he has the upside to pitch well against any offense.
Two-start bust: Josh Tomlin (52%)
One of my favorite sayings is that, at some point, the bend has got to break. Josh Tomlin is a prime candidate to break and not as in "break-out". He has four wins, an eye catching 2.43 ERA and a majestic 0.81 WHIP. However, smoke and mirrors can do wonders. Tomlin has been the beneficiary of the lowest BABIP against of any starting pitcher in baseball this season (.157). On top of that, he has also benefited from the second highest strand rate of any starter in baseball (91%). Sure, he has done a great job of limiting walks, but he has only struck out 23 batters in 40.2 innings. When a pitcher relies that heavily on the results of his balls in play, the risk is extremely high. The Indians defense has obviously played a large role, but even a great defensive team can't help a 5 K/9 pitcher this much for an entire season.
Don't be surprised if Tomlin gets knocked around Tuesday at Tampa Bay. His second start of the week comes against the punchless Mariners, but he'll go head-to-head with one of the best young pitchers in the game, Michael Pineda.